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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Bambang Widjanarko Otok
Departement of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Data Analytics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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MODEL HYBRID MARS ARIMA FOR TRIBAL-BASED MALARIA PREDICTION IN TANAH BUMBU DISTRICT, SOUTH KALIMANTAN Abdul Khair; Bambang Widjanarko Otok; Noraida Noraida; Angga Dwi Mulyanto; Cindy Cahyaning Astuti
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 3 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss3pp1923-1936

Abstract

Tanah Bumbu Regency has the highest rate of malaria in South Kalimantan Province. Due to the non-linear fluctuations in malaria cases by ethnicity, a hybrid model combining Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MARS ARIMA) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines was proposed for time series forecasting. The purpose of this study is to use the MARS ARIMA hybrid model to predict malaria cases by ethnicity in Tanah Bumbu Regency. The findings demonstrate that the best inputs for MARS modeling are significant lags found using ACF and PACF. The hybrid MARS ARIMA model performs better than standalone ARIMA or MARS models, according to predictions. Key findings show that the number of patients over 35 during the preceding two periods influences increases in malaria cases for the Banjar ethnic group. Cases exceeding 13 in two prior periods and 19 in one prior period are associated with increases for the Javanese group. Cases of more than two or fewer than two in the preceding two periods and more than eleven in one preceding period have an impact on increases among the Bugis. Prior cases below 26 have an impact on Banjar case declines, whereas prior cases below 13 and above 3 have a significant impact on Javanese case declines. This study demonstrates how well the MARS ARIMA hybrid model predicts malaria cases according to ethnicity.
PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES - MULTIGROUP ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF LEADERSHIP ON WORK CULTURE AND LECTURER PERFORMANCE Hairur Rahman; Angga Dwi Mulyanto; Sri Harini; Fachrur Rozi; Bambang Widjanarko Otok; Jerry Dwi Trijoyo Purnomo
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 1 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss1pp0041-0054

Abstract

Higher education institutions depend on leadership to build their organizational culture and achieve better employee performance. However, there remains limited understanding of how the impact of leadership may vary across institutional contexts. This research employs Partial Least Squares - Multigroup Analysis (PLS-MGA) to explore the effects of leadership on work culture and lecturer performance in two Indonesian universities: UIN Maulana Malik Ibrahim and IAIN Ponorogo. A multistage random sampling of 272 lecturers was conducted. The methodological approach allowed for a robust comparative analysis between the institutions. The results reveal that leadership exhibits powerful positive relationships with work culture and lecturer performance in both institutions. Leadership explains 38.7% of work culture variability at IAIN Ponorogo, but only 18.6% at UIN Maulana Malik Ibrahim. These findings underscore the need for context-sensitive leadership development strategies and provide a foundational contribution for future research in higher education leadership and performance.
Co-Authors Abdul Khair Angga Dwi Mulyanto Angga Dwi Mulyanto Cindy Cahyaning Astuti Fachrur Rozi Hairur Rahman Jerry Dwi Trijoyo Purnomo Noraida Sri Harini