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All Journal International Journal of Management Science and Information Technology (IJMSIT)
Annisa Nurizzati
Universitas Buana Perjuangan Karawang
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Analysis of Uncertainty Factors of Rice Availability in Karawang Regency Using a Dynamic System Approach Anditania Sari Dwi Putri; Annisa Indah Pratiwi; Annisa Nurizzati
International Journal of Management Science and Information Technology Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): July - December 2026
Publisher : Lembaga Komunitas Informasi Teknologi Aceh (KITA), Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35870/ijmsit.v6i2.8065

Abstract

Karawang Regency serves as a crucial national granary, playing a vital role in supporting food security. This study analyzes how climate change, shifting agricultural land areas, productivity, and population growth impact rice availability. Additionally, it models simulations to maintain stable rice supplies using a system dynamics approach. The model was developed using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) and Stock Flow Diagrams (SFD), and subsequently validated through Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The validation results showed MAPE values of 5.6% for rice production and 3.2% for rice consumption, indicating that the model is valid. Simulation results revealed that although rice production is projected to remain higher than consumption, rice availability is expected to decline until 2046. Scenario analysis demonstrated that increasing productivity has the greatest influence on improving rice availability. First scenario consisting of a productivity level of 8 tons/ha, an annual change in agricultural land area of 65 ha, a population growth rate of 0.5%, and a maximum temperature increase of 0.035°C is projected to produce approximately 539,959 tons of rice availability by 2046. The proposed model can serve as a decision support system for local governments in maintaining food security through simulation-based policy planning by incorporating the effects of flooding, paddy grain prices, rice prices, and rice distribution and supply chain dynamics.
Co-Authors Anditania Sari Dwi Putri Annisa Indah Pratiwi