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All Journal International Journal of Management Science and Information Technology (IJMSIT) Jurnal Buana Pengabdian
Annisa Nurizzati
Universitas Buana Perjuangan Karawang
Religion Automotive Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Medicine & Pharmacology Public Health Other

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Analysis of Uncertainty Factors of Rice Availability in Karawang Regency Using a Dynamic System Approach Anditania Sari Dwi Putri; Annisa Indah Pratiwi; Annisa Nurizzati
International Journal of Management Science and Information Technology Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): July - December 2026
Publisher : Lembaga Komunitas Informasi Teknologi Aceh (KITA), Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35870/ijmsit.v6i2.8065

Abstract

Karawang Regency serves as a crucial national granary, playing a vital role in supporting food security. This study analyzes how climate change, shifting agricultural land areas, productivity, and population growth impact rice availability. Additionally, it models simulations to maintain stable rice supplies using a system dynamics approach. The model was developed using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) and Stock Flow Diagrams (SFD), and subsequently validated through Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The validation results showed MAPE values of 5.6% for rice production and 3.2% for rice consumption, indicating that the model is valid. Simulation results revealed that although rice production is projected to remain higher than consumption, rice availability is expected to decline until 2046. Scenario analysis demonstrated that increasing productivity has the greatest influence on improving rice availability. First scenario consisting of a productivity level of 8 tons/ha, an annual change in agricultural land area of 65 ha, a population growth rate of 0.5%, and a maximum temperature increase of 0.35°C is projected to produce approximately 539,959 tons of rice availability by 2046. The proposed model can serve as a decision support system for local governments in maintaining food security through simulation-based policy planning by incorporating the effects of flooding, paddy grain prices, rice prices, and rice distribution and supply chain dynamics.
PENDEKATAN RICH PICTURE DIAGRAM UNTUKPEMETAAN MASALAH BANJIR DAN PERTANIAN DI DESAKARANGLIGAR Amelia Nur Fariza; Fitri Sulastri; Annisa Nurizzati
JURNAL BUANA PENGABDIAN Vol. 8 No. 1 (2026): JURNAL BUANA PENGABDIAN
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat, Universitas Buana Perjuangan Karawang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36805/v7g21n30

Abstract

Desa Karangligar adalah salah satu desa yang menjadi lumbung padi di Kabupaten Karawang, Jawa Barat. Luas lahan pertanian padi (sawah) di Desa Karangligar sawah seluas 310 Ha dengan rata- rata hasil output gabah 7 Ton/Ha setiap kali panen. Panen padi dilakukan sebanyak 2,5 kali tiap tahunnya. Kondisi petani yang dikatakan masih jauh dari kata makmur berkaitan dengan permasalahanpermasalahan yang saling berkaitan satu sama lainnya. Mulai dari proses pengeringan gabah yang masih manual dengan mengandalkan cahaya matahari dan permasalahan mengenai kondisi geografis Desa Karangligar yang serupa mangkuk sehingga menyebabkan banjir berkepanjangan. Banjir terjadi karena curah hujan yang terperangkap di Desa Karangligar, airnya tidak bisa dialirkan keluar Desa Karangligar akibat tidak adanya alat dan jalur yang memadai. Permasalahan lainnya yakni hasil panen yang dijual ke tengkulak dengan harga rendah membuat ekonomi petani menjadi sulit. Untuk menguraipermasalahan ini, digunakanlah pendekatan pemodelan sistem. Pemodelan sistem merupakan studi untuk mengembangkan model dari suatu permasalahan sistem. Permasalahan pertanian padi di Desa Karangligar dianggap sebagai suatu sistem dengan komponen yang saling berkaitan, yang nantinya akan dibuat model untuk mencari penyelesaian masalah. Tahapan pemodelan dilakukan mulai dari tahap formulasi masalah, pendeskripsian elemen dan stakeholder masalah, tahap pengembangan model, dan tahap rencana implementasi.
Co-Authors Amelia Nur Fariza Anditania Sari Dwi Putri Annisa Indah Pratiwi Fitri Sulastri