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All Journal Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art
Onowuzou, James Oruarooghene
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Computer Science & IT Engineering Environmental Science Physics Social Sciences Other

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Predictive Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model; Meningitis Death and Alzheimer Death Ogunmola, Adeniyi Oyewole; Onowuzou, James Oruarooghene; Idi, Danjuma
Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Vol 2 No 6 (2024): Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ajstea.v2i6.4126

Abstract

Nigeria, being a developing country and by its limited resources, priority must be placed on deaths due to ill-health-related research. This study aims to investigate the temporal pattern and forecast mortality associated with Alzheimer’s disease and meningitis using ARIMA model techniques. Results showed that the best fitted for the Alzheimer series is the ARIMA (1, 2, 0) model and the best for the meningitis series is the ARIMA(1,1,0) model. The forecasted values revealed that there will be an inconsistent slight decrease in meningitis deaths while there will be an increase in Alzheimer's deaths over the years. For meningitis, the predicted deaths for 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, were 45401, 45216, and 45287, and their 95% confidence intervals were obtained. For Alzheimer's, predicted deaths for 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, are 12472, 12832, and 13191, and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals were also obtained. Diagnostic checks for the predictive models were carried out and assumptions were sastisfied.
Application of Linear Probability Model to Road Traffic Crash Ogunmola, Adeniyi Oyewole; Ogebe, Victor Ajibo; Onowuzou, James Oruarooghene
Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS Vol 3 No 2 (2025): Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mikailalsys.v3i2.5777

Abstract

Road traffic crashes remain a critical public health and safety concern, particularly in developing countries such as Nigeria, where they constitute one of the leading causes of mortality and injury. This study investigates the likelihood that a road traffic crash in each of Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones and in the country as a whole results in a minor incident. Quarterly data on road traffic crashes were sourced from the official database of the Federal Road Safety Corps and analyzed using a linear probability model. The model estimates the probability of a crash being categorized as minor across regions. Findings indicate that the probability of minor road traffic crashes is consistently below 20 percent in all zones and nationally, suggesting that the majority of reported crashes result in major damage or casualties. These results point to a concerning trend in crash severity across Nigeria. The study highlights the urgent need for enhanced traffic safety interventions, stricter enforcement of road regulations, improved vehicle and infrastructure standards, and more effective emergency response systems. Emphasizing preventative strategies and public awareness campaigns could help shift the balance toward more minor, less harmful outcomes when crashes do occur. Ultimately, the goal should be to ensure that in the event of a road traffic crash, the incident remains minor in nature, minimizing harm to life and property.
Co-Authors Idi, Danjuma Ogebe, Victor Ajibo Ogunmola, Adeniyi Oyewole