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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika
Yanuari, Eka Dicky Darmawan
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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STUDI KOMPARASI METODE SVM-SMOTE DAN SMOTE-TOMEK DALAM MENGATASI IMBALANCE CLASS MENGGUNAKAN MODEL XGBOOST PADA KLASIFIKASI RUMAH TANGGA PENERIMA KUR Yanuari, Eka Dicky Darmawan; Yudhianto, Rachmat Bintang; Ulfia, Ratu Risha; Sartono, Bagus; Firdawanti, Aulia Rizki
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 5 No. 3 (2024): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v5i3.857

Abstract

This study aims to compare the SMOTE, SVM-SMOTE, and SMOTE-Tomek methods using the XGBoost model in overcoming the problem of class imbalance and to determine the factors that affect the status of KUR recipients in West Java Province. Three XGBoost models with class balancing techniques SMOTE, SVM-SMOTE and SMOTE-Tomek were applied to SUSENAS data of West Java Province in 2023 consisting of 1 response variable and 19 predictor variables. The results showed that the XGBoost model with the SMOTE balancing method produced better accuracy in overall data classification, but was less effective in classifying minority classes as reflected by low sensitivity and F1-Score values. The XGBoost model with the SMOTE-Tomek balancing method showed better performance in capturing minority classes with higher sensitivity and F1-Score values. The most influential variables in this model in order are per capita expenditure, urban/rural classification, motorcycle ownership, dwelling wall materials and land ownership. Per capita expenditure has the largest influence on the classification of KUR recipients, indicating that household financial management is a major factor in lending decisions. Urban/rural classification and motorcycle ownership also contributed significantly, reflecting differences in social and economic access between regions. Overall, economic factors, infrastructure and social accessibility are the main considerations in determining KUR recipient households in West Java Province.
COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE OF SARIMAX AND LSTM MODEL IN PREDICTING IMPORT QUANTITIES OF MILK, BUTTER, AND EGGS Ghiffary, Ghardapaty Ghaly; Yanuari, Eka Dicky Darmawan; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Angraini, Yenni; Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp407-418

Abstract

This study evaluates how well SARIMAX and LSTM models predict monthly imports of HS-04 commodities (butter, eggs, and milk) in Indonesia. Data were provided by BPS Statistics Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Trade, Trade Map, and Indonesia National Single Window and used from January 2006 to February 2024. The SARIMAX model included exogenous variables such as inflation rates, USD/IDR exchange rates, and major Indonesian holidays (Eid al-Fitr, Eid al-Adha, Christmas, and Lunar New Year). The results show that the SARIMAX and LSTM models predict the import volumes of butter, eggs, and milk with good accuracy. However, the SARIMAX model demonstrated superior forecasting accuracy, achieving a lower RMSE of 7547.89 and a MAPE of 13.16 compared to the LSTM model, which yielded an RMSE of 8787.73 and a MAPE of 14.89. The SARIMAX model performed significantly better when the lunar new year was added as an exogenous variable. In order to support price stability and economic growth in Indonesia, this research provides policymakers and industry stakeholders with critical information to optimize import management strategies for butter, eggs, and milk commodities. Accurate forecasts can contribute to price stability, enhanced food security, and sustainable economic development in Indonesia by enabling informed decisions on import quotas, tariff adjustments, investment in domestic production, and strategic reserves.
Co-Authors Aulia Rizki Firdawanti Bagus Sartono Ghiffary, Ghardapaty Ghaly Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul Ulfia, Ratu Risha Yenni Angraini Yudhianto, Rachmat Bintang