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All Journal Indonesia Bergerak: Jurnal Hasil Kegiatan Pengabdian Masyarakat Algoritma: Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa
Fuja Nauli Pasaribu
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Earth & Planetary Sciences Education Mathematics Public Health

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Implementasi Persamaan Diferensial Model Logistik untuk Prediksi Pertumbuhan Tingkat Pernikahan Sumatera Utara Dinda Renata Cecilia; Fuja Nauli Pasaribu; Rafika Sari Prayetno; Rio Anggara Panjaitan; Sintia Agustina Siregar
Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62383/algoritma.v3i1.387

Abstract

Forecasting the number of marriages is a prediction of marriages that will occur in the future based on current and past data. The total population of the married population is continuous, that is, its growth continues without a break. The model used for continuous population is the logistic model. This study aims to see the growth of marriage in the period 2027 using the logistic model growth. Judging from the data obtained from BPS (Central Bureau of Statistics) of North Sumatra Province from 2020 to 2023, the capacity limit (C) = . The logistic model that can be used to parameterize the marriage rate in North Sumatra province is with a value of k = -0.25019918023 with the formula .Based on the logistic model, the predicted marriage rate in North Sumatra province for 2027 is 64305.93339.
Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, dan Triple Exponential Smoothing dalam Analisis Realisasi APBD Kota Medan Riri Syafitri Lubis; Dinda Renata Cecilia; Sintia Agustina Siregar; Fuja Nauli Pasaribu; Ahmad Sugarda
Indonesia Bergerak : Jurnal Hasil Kegiatan Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Januari: Jurnal Hasil Kegiatan Pengabdian Masyarakat
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/inber.v3i1.730

Abstract

This research compares three forecasting methods, namely Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), and Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES), in analyzing the realization of the Medan City Regional Budget (APBD) for the 2019-2024 period. This study aims to find the most accurate method in forecasting the budget, so that it can help optimize the use of APBD by local governments. The APBD realization data was analyzed using Minitab software, and the accuracy of the method was measured based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that TES has the smallest MAPE value of 0.12%, compared to SES (12%) and DES (14%). Thus, TES is the best method to predict the budget realization in the following year, producing a forecasting value of 5,500.86 million rupiah. This research is expected to support the government in making more precise and efficient budget decisions.
Co-Authors Ahmad Sugarda Dinda Renata Cecilia Rafika Sari Prayetno Rio Anggara Panjaitan Riri Syafitri Lubis Sintia Agustina Siregar