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All Journal JURNAL PENDIDIKAN TAMBUSAI UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Larissa, Dwika
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences

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Journal : UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science

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Peramalan Harga Bawang Merah di Kota Padang Menggunakan Metode SARIMA Larissa, Dwika; Fitri, Fadhilah; Dina Fitria
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss1/330

Abstract

The fluctuation of shallot prices in Padang City has become a major concern for consumers, producers, and the government. This study applies the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method to forecast shallot prices from January 2020 to August 2024, using monthly time-series data. The analysis identifies ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)12 as the optimal model for predicting shallot prices in Padang City, effectively capturing seasonal and non-seasonal patterns. Predictions for the period from September 2024 to August 2025 indicate a price increase trend, peaking in May 2025 before declining. The findings are expected to serve as a reference for planning production, distribution, and price control of shallots.
Co-Authors Dina Fitria Dodi Vionanda Fitri, Fadhilah