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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Martabe : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Pelita Eksakta Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting
Fitri, Fadhilah
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Peramalan Suhu Rata – Rata Kota Padang Panjang dengan Membandingkan Metode SARIMA dan Holt – Winter Additive Putri, Fadhira Vitasha; Ikhsan, Easbi; Fitri, Fadhilah
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol. 6 No. 03 (2024)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm237

Abstract

Padang Panjang City, situated at an altitude of 650 to 850 meters above sea level and surrounded by high mountains, experiences significant temperature changes that affect various aspects of life such as public health, agriculture, and tourism. This study aims to forecast the monthly average temperature of Padang Panjang City from January 2017 to December 2023 by comparing SARIMA and Holt-Winters Additive forecasting methods. The results show that the SARIMA method, with an MSD value of 0.2206, is more accurate compared to the Holt-Winters Additive method, which has an MSD value of 0.29821. With the SARIMA model as the best method, the forecast indicates that the highest average temperature in Padang Panjang City will reach 23.1418 degrees Celsius in May 2024. These results are expected to provide a strong basis for planning and decision-making related to the temperature changes occurring in Padang Panjang City.
PENINGKATAN KEMAMPUAN GURU DALAM VISUALISASI DATA UNTUK PENELITIAN TINDAKAN KELAS MELALUI PELATIHAN MICROSOFT EXCEL DAN QUIZIZZ Prima Sari, Devni; Fitri, Fadhilah; Meutia Rani, Maulani
Martabe : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 8, No 1 (2025): MARTABE : JURNAL PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Tapanuli Selatan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31604/jpm.v8i1.286-294

Abstract

Pelatihan bertujuan untuk meningkatkan keterampilan guru dalam menganalisis dan memvisualisasikan data, mendukung pengambilan keputusan berbasis bukti di kelas. Fokus pelatihan ini adalah penggunaan alat analisis data, seperti Microsoft Excel dan Quizizz, yang membantu guru memahami dan menyajikan data secara efektif. Hasil pelatihan menunjukkan peningkatan signifikan dalam keterampilan visualisasi data peserta, di mana guru-guru lebih mampu mengaplikasikan fitur grafik dan diagram untuk menampilkan hasil pembelajaran secara jelas dan menarik. Dengan peningkatan ini, guru-guru menjadi lebih siap dalam merencanakan dan melaksanakan Penelitian Tindakan Kelas (PTK), yang memungkinkan mereka menghasilkan solusi berbasis bukti untuk meningkatkan efektivitas pembelajaran. Pelatihan ini diharapkan dapat memperkuat peran guru sebagai agen perubahan dalam pendidikan, mendorong peningkatan kualitas pendidikan di sekolah dan masyarakat secara keseluruhan.
PELATIHAN PINJAMAN ONLINE: KENALI YANG LEGAL DAN ILEGAL, HINDARI JEBAKAN Prima Sari, Devni; Fitri, Fadhilah; Fitria, Yuki
Martabe : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 8, No 1 (2025): MARTABE : JURNAL PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Tapanuli Selatan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31604/jpm.v8i1.279-285

Abstract

Meningkatnya penggunaan pinjaman online di masyarakat, terutama di kalangan pelajar dan pendidik, menimbulkan masalah baru dalam literasi keuangan. Kegagalan untuk memahami perbedaan antara pinjaman online yang legal dan ilegal, beserta risiko-risiko yang menyertainya, membuat banyak orang rentan terjebak dalam utang yang berbahaya. Di SMAN 3 Padang Panjang, instruksi khusus diberikan mengenai dimensi hukum pinjaman online. Program ini mencakup peserta tentang perbedaan antara pinjaman yang legal dan melanggar hukum, strategi untuk menghindari jebakan utang, dan kriteria untuk memilih pinjaman yang sesuai. Hasil penilaian menunjukkan adanya peningkatan pemahaman peserta terhadap dimensi hukum pinjaman online, yang diharapkan dapat meningkatkan literasi keuangan dan memfasilitasi penilaian keuangan yang lebih bijaksana di masa depan.
Application of Principal Component Analysis in Identifying Factors Affecting the Human Development Index Faisal, Muhammad; Fitri, Fadhilah; Zilrahmi
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): December 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v2i2.26

Abstract

This study examines the Human Development Index (HDI) in West Sumatra Province in 2023. The HDI is an essential indicator for measuring the success of efforts to improve the quality of human life. This research aims to identify the key factors that influence the HDI. The HDI is constructed from three fundamental dimensions that indicate human quality of life: health, education, and economy. The factors within each dimension tend to be strongly correlated, as they mutually influence one another, potentially leading to multicollinearity issues. Therefore, an analysis is conducted to reduce the number of original variables into new orthogonal variables while preserving the total variance of the original variables using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Based on this background, the study applies PCA to address multicollinearity and to identify new, more representative variables. The study findings indicate that the factors influencing the HDI are the education and economic and health welfare indexes.
Application of the K-Means Clustering Algorithm to the Case of Stunting Risk Families in Districts/Cities of West Sumatra Province in 2023 Widiyanti; Fitri, Fadhilah
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): December 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v2i2.29

Abstract

Stunting is one of the indicators of chronic nutritional status that has a long-term effect on child growth; the main contributing factors are households that do not have access to clean drinking water, proper sanitation facilities, and other factors. The adverse effects experienced by stunted children are reduced cognitive ability, learning ability, decreased endurance, and can lead to new diseases such as diabetes, heart disease, and many other diseases. This study uses the K-Means Cluster method to group the Regency / City of West Sumatra Province in 2023 regarding cases of stunting risk families. K-Means Cluster analysis is an analysis used to group data based on similar features or characteristics. From the results of the study, it can be concluded that the clustering of 19 regencies/cities in West Sumatra Province resulted in 2 groups (clusters): cluster 1 consists of 12 regency/city members, and cluster 2 consists of 7 regency/city members. The characteristic results obtained from each cluster formed are cluster 2 shows families with better conditions than cluster 1.
PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE MOVING AVERAGE DAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (BROWN) TERHADAP TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI KOTA PADANG PANJANG Fishuri, Nufhika; Ikhsan, Easbi; Fitri, Fadhilah; Permana, Dony
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 6 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v6i1.945

Abstract

Unemployment occurs because of a mismatch between the demand for jobs and job seekers' qualifications. Many job vacancies require diploma or degree graduates, so unemployment is one of the problems faced by Padang Panjang City. To overcome TPT in Padang Panjang City, one of them needs to do forecasting to see how the TPT rate will occur in the coming year. This research uses a forecasting method by comparing the Double Moving Average (DMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) forecasting values of the unemployment rate in Padang Panjang City from 2006 to 2023. This forecasting is done to provide insight into the condition of the workforce in Padang Panjang City in the future. The forecasting results show that in 2024, there will be an increase of 0.42%, and for the next 2 years, there will be a decrease.
MODELING TOTAL FERTILITY RATE IN INDONESIA: A COMPARISON OF FOURIER SERIES REGRESSION AND ELASTIC NET REGRESSION Fitri, Fadhilah; Ketrin, Melin Wanike; Almuhayar, Mawanda
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 3 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss3pp2017-2028

Abstract

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) describes population growth and socioeconomic development of a country. This statistic plays an important role in predicting future social and economic conditions. Indonesia has experienced a steady decline in TFR over the past few decades, which can be a serious problem if this trend continues. Therefore, the factor influencing the decline must be found. The independent variables include the percentage of women graduating high school, percentage of the poor population, poverty gap index, poverty severity index, prevalence of inadequate food consumption, proportion of people living below 50 percent of median income, unemployment rate, infant mortality rate, child mortality rate, and percentage of ever-married women aged 15–49 years using contraception methods. The aim of this study is to compare both Fourier Series Regression and Elastic Net Regression models to see which approximation can capture the TRF phenomenon that occurs in Indonesia and identify the causes of its decline. Fourier Regression is chosen because there is a repetition of patterns in several variables. Moreover, this data is experiencing multicollinearity; hence, Elastic-net Regression is the best way because this method overcomes the limitations of each Ridge and Lasso approach. These models are compared to see which is more suitable to capture the relationships between these factors and TFR. The best model obtained will provide a clearer understanding of Indonesia's underlying drivers of fertility decline. The result is that the Fourier Series Regression can model all variables better than the Elastic-net Regression, and the independent variables can explain the proportion of variance in the dependent variables by 97.91%, with all the independent variables significantly affecting the Total Fertility Rate.
Comparison of the Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model and the Heuristic Model in Forecasting the Number of International Tourists in West Sumatra Rizki Akbar; Fitri, Fadhilah; Vionanda, Dodi; Mukhti, Tessy Octavia
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): June 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v2i1.20

Abstract

The Fuzzy Time Series Chen and Heuristic are two forecasting methods based on fuzzy logic used to predict values in time series. The FTS Chen and Heuristic models have almost identical forecasting processes, but the main difference lies in how they develop fuzzy logical relationships. The FTS Chen model uses Fuzzy Logical Relationship Groups obtained from the results of Fuzzy Logical Relationships for the forecasting process. On the other hand, the FTS Heuristic model uses Fuzzy Logical Relationships directly in the forecasting process. Fuzzy Logical Relationships are a collection of fuzzy logical relationships used to connect values in time series. By using Fuzzy Logical Relationships, the Heuristic model can predict values in time series more accurately and effectively. The forecasting is done to plan the development of tourism infrastructure, determine service needs, and optimize tourism promotion. The data shows that the number of foreign tourists visiting West Sumatra has continued to grow from 2006 to 2023. The comparison of the accuracy of the forecasting results of FTS Chen and Heuristic models for foreign tourists in West Sumatra yielded a MAPE of 0.241% for FTS model Chen and 0.194% for FTS model Heuristic. This indicates that the best forecasting model for foreign tourists is the Heuristic model due to its lower MAPE value.
Peramalan Harga Emas Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain Putri, Eno Dwi; Permana, Dony; Syafriandi, Syafriandi; Fitri, Fadhilah
Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 7, No 4 (2025): Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas PGRI Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26877/imajiner.v7i4.23893

Abstract

Emas dikenal sebagai instrumen investasi andal dalam menghadapi inflasi dan ketidakpastian ekonomi global. Namun, karakteristik data harga emas yang tidak linier dan fluktuatif menjadikannya sulit diprediksi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan harga emas harian di Indonesia menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain (FTSMC) berdasarkan data periode 1 Januari hingga 13 Juni 2025 sebanyak 118 observasi. Metode FTSMC menggabungkan teori himpunan fuzzy untuk menangani ketidakpastian linguistik dan model rantai Markov dalam memetakan transisi probabilistik antar kondisi harga. Pemodelan dilakukan menggunakan bahasa pemrograman Python, sedangkan evaluasi akurasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil peramalan menunjukkan tren penurunan harga emas secara bertahap selama tujuh hari ke depan, yang mengindikasikan fase koreksi setelah tren kenaikan sebelumnya. Model FTSMC menunjukkan tingkat akurasi sangat tinggi dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 1,10%. Hasil ini konsisten dengan penelitian sebelumnya yang menerapkan pendekatan serupa dan menunjukkan kapabilitas model dalam menginterpretasi serta beradaptasi terhadap dinamika data harga komoditas. Penelitian ini terbatas pada peramalan jangka pendek dan data univariat. Penelitian lanjutan disarankan untuk mempertimbangkan variabel makroekonomi lain seperti suku bunga dan nilai tukar. Kebaruan penelitian terletak pada penerapan metode FTSMC terhadap data harga emas terkini di Indonesia dengan akurasi tinggi, yang dapat mendukung pengambilan keputusan investasi secara praktis.
Application of Area Sampling Frame for Digitizing Household Data in Talawi Mudiak to Support Sustainable Development Goals Syafriandi, Syafriandi; Fitria, Dina; Amalita, Nonong; Kurniawati, Yenni; Permana, Dony; Fitri, Fadhilah; Martha, Zamahsary; Mukhti, Tessy Octavia
Pelita Eksakta Vol 8 No 2 (2025): Pelita Eksakta, Vol. 8, No. 2
Publisher : Fakultas MIPA Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/pelitaeksakta/vol8-iss2/293

Abstract

Desa Talawi Mudiak menghadapi tantangan dalam pengelolaan data kependudukan. Meskipun mereka telah menyusun RPJMD 2022-2027 yang mengacu pada SDG's, pendataan yang dilakukan masih terbatas pada aspek kependudukan dan demografi. Padahal, pemutkhiran data harus mencakup 17 pilar SDg's agar dapat digunakan sebagai dasar dalam perencanaan pembangunan desa. Selain itu, keterbatasan akses internet dan kurangnya pemanfaatan teknologi informasi juga menjadi kendala pengembangan sistem informasi desa yang lebih komprehensif. Program Studi S1 Statistika hadir dalam menjembatani pencapaian beberapa pilar itu melalui pemutakhiran data hingga dilitalisasinya. Kegiatan diawali dengan pengumpulan data awal, perhitungan kerangka sampling, pelaksanaan survei, dan pemrosesan data pasca survei hingga diperoleh suatu kesimpulan yang dapat digunakan untuk pembangunan desa. Kegiatan melibatkan banyak pihak, mulai dari dosen program studi, perangkat desa, mahasiswa, dan masyarakat. Hasil yang diperoleh berupa data yang mutakhir dan sebuah buku berisikan kondisi Desa Talawi Mudiak tahun 2025.
Co-Authors Almuhayar, Mawanda Dina Fitria, Dina Dodi Vionanda Fishuri, Nufhika Ikhsan, Easbi Ketrin, Melin Wanike Maulani Meutia Rani Mawarni, Iga Muhammad Faisal Nonong Amalita Permana, Dony Prima Sari, Devni Putri, Eno Dwi Putri, Fadhira Vitasha Rahmatullah, Figo Rizki Akbar Syafriandi Syafriandi Tessy Octavia Mukhti Widiyanti Yenni Kurniawati Yuki Fitria Zamahsary Martha Zilrahmi, Zilrahmi