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All Journal Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Ecovision: Journal of Environmental Solutions
Naim, Asshaffa
Unknown Affiliation
Computer Science & IT Earth & Planetary Sciences Energy Engineering Environmental Science Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Social Sciences Other

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Meteorological Drought Analysis in Tangsi Sub-Watershed, Magelang Regency Atikah, A; Pradita, Rey Pingkan; Ramadhania, Rizka Novi; Naim, Asshaffa; Paramesthi, Febriyanti; Anjani, Azzahra Gita Putri; Ramadhanissa, Diandra Salma; Fathurrahman, Yusuf; Khansa, Lulu Nabila; Oktaviani, Malinda Budi; Abidin, Pramuditya Vanesya Putri Febrian; Mahdi, Naufal Asyraf; Suarma, Utia
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2024: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/iseth.5435

Abstract

Natural disasters such as droughts occur gradually and last until the start of the rainy season. Meteorological drought happens when a region experiences periods of below-average rainfall, resulting in lower water availability in the soil compared to its needs. The Tangsi Sub-Watershed traverses the districts of Kajoran, Salaman, Kaliangkrik, Borobudur, and Tempuran. It is part of the Progo Watershed, which is under the administrative boundary of Magelang Regency. The variation in climate and the landforms of the Tangsi Sub-Watershed, which are dominated by materials that are less permeable to water, make this area prone to drought. This research analyzes meteorological drought in the Tangsi Sub-Watershed, Magelang Regency by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Drought Hazard Index (DHI). The analysis from quarterly SPI from 1994 to 2023 indicates that the Tangsi Sub-Watershed experienced a medium drought hazard level with a score of 14. The Tangsi Sub-Watershed experienced extreme drought events at 2.22%, high drought at 3.89%, and moderate drought at 6.94%. Long-term drought risk analysis can be used by communities and governments to plan and implement mitigation measures ahead of time by revealing patterns and intensities of recurrent droughts.
PROYEKSI KEKRITISAN AIR TAHUN 2021-2035 BERDASARKAN SKENARIO CMIP6 (COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PHASE 6) DI DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA Naim, Asshaffa; Zerlinda, Aurelia; Oktaviani, Malinda Budi; Abidin, Pramuditya Vanesya Putri Febrian; Nurjani, Emilya; Sekaranom, Andung Bayu; Setyaningrum, Etik; Prabowo, Andriyas Aryo
Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Vol. 25 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v25i1.1063

Abstract

Climate change can lead to an imbalance between water demand and supply, resulting in problems such as water scarcity. To avoid this, a projection of the level of water scarcity is needed. Water scarcity is calculated as the percentage of water demand to water supply. This research aims to determine the level of need, availability, and scarcity of meteorological water. This research uses meteorological water supply obtained through Thornthwaite- Mather water balance calculation from CMIP6 rainfall and temperature projection modeling data in SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios. CMIP6 data was corrected using distribution mapping and average ratios methods to improve the distribution and data values. Water demand indicators are reviewed from three sectors, namely domestic water demands, agricultural water demands, and livestock water demands. The water supply calculation results in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY) show a pattern that fluctuates from year to year during the 2021-2035. Meanwhile, water demand continues to increase along with population growth. The level of water scarcity shows that, overall, DIY is classified as not critical to slightly critical in the SSP2 scenario and not critical to critical in the SSP5 scenario. The difference in the level of scarcity is influenced by socio-economic development and climate change mitigation efforts assumed in each scenario. By knowing the projected level of water scarcity, policymakers are expected to pursue appropriate climate change mitigation measures to actualize the best SSP scenario.
Future drought characteristics in Sumatra under shared socioeconomic pathways 5-8.5 based on the standardized precipitation index Naim, Asshaffa
EcoVision: Journal of Environmental Solutions Vol. 3 No. 1: (February) 2026
Publisher : Institute for Advanced Science, Social, and Sustainable Future

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61511/evojes.v3i1.2026.3123

Abstract

Background: Climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of droughts globally and affected freshwater availability, particularly in developing regions with limited adaptive capacity. In Sumatra, prolonged droughts and reduced rainfall have increased vulnerability to drought, necessitating accurate projections to support climate resilience and sustainable water management. This study aims to assess drought projections in Sumatra from 2015 to 2100 in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5-8.5 (SSP 5-8.5), which represents a high emission trajectory. Methods: CMIP6 monthly precipitation from the CMIP6 EC-Earth3 model was bias-corrected using Monthly Mean Bias Correction. The corrected precipitation was used to calculate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to evaluate future drought conditions based on rainfall distribution. Findings: The SPI calculation results show that the frequency of severe droughts (SPI < -1.5) experiences significant interannual fluctuations, in line with rainfall patterns that exhibit oscillatory patterns every few years. The southern part of Sumatra emerged as the most drought-prone region with more than 140 drought events detected. The highest drought vulnerability occurs between March and May in the northern region, which has an equatorial rainfall pattern, while the peak drought vulnerability occurs between September and November in the southern region. Atmospheric circulations such as the ITCZ, ENSO, and IOD, as well as topographic and geographic factors, play a crucial role in regulating drought in Sumatra. Conclusion: Future droughts in Sumatra will be more frequent, occurring in short but severe periods compared to weak, long-lasting droughts. The influence of atmospheric circulation will change with climate change and future anthropogenic pressures, increasing the unpredictability of droughts. Novelty/Originality of this article: This study integrates climate projections with robust and efficient drought index calculations to assess future droughts. Supported by comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis, the findings of this study can provide key-insights for climate resilience and sustainable meteorological-based water management efforts. However, uncertainties remain related to single-model dependency, emission scenario assumptions, and SPI’s precipitation-only formulation.
Co-Authors Abidin, Pramuditya Vanesya Putri Febrian Andung Bayu Sekaranom Anjani, Azzahra Gita Putri Atikah, A Emilya Nurjani Fathurrahman, Yusuf Khansa, Lulu Nabila Mahdi, Naufal Asyraf Oktaviani, Malinda Budi Paramesthi, Febriyanti Prabowo, Andriyas Aryo Pradita, Rey Pingkan Ramadhania, Rizka Novi Ramadhanissa, Diandra Salma Setyaningrum, Etik Utia Suarma Zerlinda, Aurelia