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Penerapan Probabilitas dalam Sistem Skoring untuk Evaluasi Kelayakan Beasiswa Mahasiswa Prodi Matematika Universitas Negeri Medan Tahun 2022 Arnah Ritonga; Ellys Rebecca Simanjuntak; Keisya Amelia Putri; Nafasa Zahri; Mhd. Fachrizal; Alya Dwi Lestari; Arief Rachman
Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): April : Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/arjuna.v3i2.1717

Abstract

This study aims to apply the concept of probability in the assessment system to assess students' eligibility to receive scholarships. By applying a probabilistic approach, especially Bayes' Theorem, this study develops a more objective and data-based evaluation method. The method used is a quantitative approach with probabilistic analysis, allowing the calculation of students' chances of getting scholarships based on factors such as Cumulative Achievement Index (IPK) and Single Tuition Fee (UKT). The data analyzed includes primary data from students applying for scholarships as well as secondary data from historical records of previous scholarship acceptances. The results of the study show that GPA plays a significant role in increasing the chances of receiving a scholarship, where students with higher GPAs are more likely to be accepted. Conversely, students with high UKT tend to have lower chances, indicating that financial conditions are also a major factor in selection. This probability-based approach increases transparency and fairness in the selection system and reduces subjectivity in decision making. This study confirms that a probability-based scoring system can be a fairer and more accurate solution in assessing the eligibility of scholarship recipients. It is hoped that the results of this study can be a reference for educational institutions in developing a more data-based and objective selection system.
Analisis Dualitas Program Linier dalam Optimasi Biaya Produksi Minuman pada Warung Kopi Nerli Khairani; Ellys Rebecca Simanjuntak; Maysi Puspita; Keisya Amelia Putri
Pendas : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Dasar Vol. 11 No. 02 (2026): Volume 11 Nomor 02, Juni 2026 Published
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Guru Sekolah Dasar FKIP Universitas Pasundan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23969/jp.v11i02.49421

Abstract

Problems in beverage production in small businesses often occur due to limited raw materials, production time, and operational costs, so that an optimal production combination is needed to minimize costs. This study discusses the application of linear programming duality in optimizing beverage production costs at the "Pak Budi" Coffee Shop with two decision variables, namely the production of Milk Coffee and Iced Coffee. The method used is a linear program with a duality approach and the simplex method to solve the optimization model. The primal minimization model is formed based on the constraints of the availability of coffee beans, milk, ice cubes, sugar, and production time, then transformed into a dual maximization model and solved using the simplex method. The results of the analysis show that the optimal solution is obtained at the production of approximately 2.67 glasses of Milk Coffee and 2 glasses of Iced Coffee with a minimum production cost of Rp21,333.33 per day. In addition, the optimal value of the dual model is the same as the optimal value of the primal model, thus proving the validity of the Strong Duality Theorem. The application of duality and the simplex method has proven effective in determining efficient production combinations and minimizing production costs in small-scale businesses.