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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Denanda Aufadlan Tsaqif
IPB University
Computer Science & IT Mathematics Other

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Meta-stacking models for electricity load forecasting in West Java Denanda Aufadlan Tsaqif; Bagus Sartono; Hari Wijayanto
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 42, No 2: May 2026
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v42.i2.pp442-453

Abstract

Indonesia’s electricity demand continues to increase due to population growth, urbanization, and industrial expansion, therefore making accurate load forecasting is essential to maintain supply-demand balance. However, electrical load demand in West Java has a complex pattern (seasonality, nonlinear behavior, weather variability, and holiday effects), which motivates the use of a meta-stacking approach to effectively capture such complexity. Previous research shows that meta-stacking outperforms individual models, but it fails to capture sudden changes and its performance consistency remains unclear. Therefore, this study proposes a meta-stacking framework for daily electricity load forecasting in West Java (2006-2023) that includes weather and holiday variables by combining CNN-BiLSTM, CNN-BiGRU, and Windowed-XGBoost forecasts through linear regression and evaluates its performance across five data-splitting scenarios and nine forecast horizons, which represents the main novelty in this research. Meta stacking shows strong generalization across scenarios and strong long-term forecasting performance across horizons, while consistently providing a balanced trade-off between MAPE and trend accuracy, where the model trained on the longest historical dataset achieves the best performance with 1.89% MAPE and 86% trend accuracy. The proposed approach successfully captures seasonal and holiday-related load patterns, indicating its potential to support PLN in improving demand planning and operational decision making.
Classification of Drinking Water Source Suitability in West Java Using XGBoost and Cluster Analysis Based on SHAP Values: Klasifikasi Kelayakan Sumber Air Minum di Jawa Barat Menggunakan XGBoost dan Analisis Klasterisasi Berdasarkan Nilai SHAP Annisa Permata Sari; Billy; Denanda Aufadlan Tsaqif; Bagus Sartono; Aulia Rizki Firdawanti
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, SSMI, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p202-214

Abstract

Water is essential for meeting the basic needs of living organisms. In Indonesia, ensuring safe and quality drinking water is crucial for public health. However, in some regions, particularly in West Java Province, people still rely on unsuitable water sources, which can negatively impact health. The classification of water source suitability can be achieved using machine learning, such as the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model. XGBoost with feature selection is effective in improving prediction accuracy and minimizing overfitting. This study evaluates the performance of the XGBoost model in classifying household drinking water sources in West Java and uses the K-Means algorithm for cluster SHAP values to identify key characteristics of households with safe drinking water. The results show that the XGBoost model, with an accuracy of 77.43% and an F1-Score of 80.17%, successfully classified 4187 households, with 2349 having safe drinking water and 1838 having unsuitable sources. SHAP value analysis identified location, water collection time, and monthly per capita expenditure as significant factors influencing water source suitability. Households with water sources inside the house's fence, a short water collection time, and high monthly per capita expenditure tend to have safe drinking water sources. There are 4 clusters formed, with cluster 1 and cluster 3 needing immediate quality of drinking water sources improvement with cluster 2 as an indicator of success. Cluster 4 consists of households with high expenditure, marking it as a potential household for the government to make water quality improvements.
Co-Authors Annisa Permata Sari Aulia Rizki Firdawanti Bagus Sartono Billy Hari Wijayanto