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Denanda Aufadlan Tsaqif
IPB University

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Meta-stacking models for electricity load forecasting in West Java Denanda Aufadlan Tsaqif; Bagus Sartono; Hari Wijayanto
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 42, No 2: May 2026
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v42.i2.pp442-453

Abstract

Indonesia’s electricity demand continues to increase due to population growth, urbanization, and industrial expansion, therefore making accurate load forecasting is essential to maintain supply-demand balance. However, electrical load demand in West Java has a complex pattern (seasonality, nonlinear behavior, weather variability, and holiday effects), which motivates the use of a meta-stacking approach to effectively capture such complexity. Previous research shows that meta-stacking outperforms individual models, but it fails to capture sudden changes and its performance consistency remains unclear. Therefore, this study proposes a meta-stacking framework for daily electricity load forecasting in West Java (2006-2023) that includes weather and holiday variables by combining CNN-BiLSTM, CNN-BiGRU, and Windowed-XGBoost forecasts through linear regression and evaluates its performance across five data-splitting scenarios and nine forecast horizons, which represents the main novelty in this research. Meta stacking shows strong generalization across scenarios and strong long-term forecasting performance across horizons, while consistently providing a balanced trade-off between MAPE and trend accuracy, where the model trained on the longest historical dataset achieves the best performance with 1.89% MAPE and 86% trend accuracy. The proposed approach successfully captures seasonal and holiday-related load patterns, indicating its potential to support PLN in improving demand planning and operational decision making.
Co-Authors Bagus Sartono Hari Wijayanto