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Potensi Penurunan Produksi Padi Akibat Variabilitas Curah Hujan di Kabupaten Subang Jawa Barat Ruminta Roem; Agus Wahyudin; Tati Nurmala; Joko Wiratmo; dan Fiky Yulianto Wicaksono
Indonesian Journal of Agronomy Vol. 46 No. 2 (2018): Jurnal Agronomi Indonesia
Publisher : Indonesia Society of Agronomy (PERAGI) and Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Faculty of Agriculture, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (944.187 KB)

Abstract

Research on hazard, vulnerability, and risks of the decline in rice production due to climate change has been implemented in Subang West Java. This study aims to assess the level of hazard, vulnerability, and risks of the decline in rice production and identify areas that very high level of the decline in rice production. Materials of this study is data of climate, agroclimate, rice production, and socio-economic. Methods of this study is descriptive explanatory that using risk assessment concept where risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability. The results was showed in spatial map using GIS.  The results indicate that in Subang area has experienced climate change shown by the changing patterns (trend) of rainfall, rain day, and the distribution of annual rainfall. Decreased rice harvested area above 5.2% per year occurred in Cisalak, Dawuan, Pabuaran, Patokbesi, Pagaden, and Pusakanagara. Decreased rice production over 11.2% per yeas occurred in Cisalak, Dawuan, Pabuaran, and Pusakanagara.The very high vulnerability occurred in Pabuaran.The high risks of decline in harvested area and production of rice respectively found in Patokbesi and Pabuaran. The high risk reduction in harvested area and production of rice in the region due to the disruption of water supply, growth, development, and production plants due to climate change.
POTENSI KEJADIAN BADAI GUNTUR BERDASARKAN PARAMETER KELEMBAPAN, LABILITAS UDARA, DAN MEKANISME PENGANGKATAN (STUDI KASUS: DI BANDAR UDARA FRANS KAISIEPO BIAK) Dian Mayangwulan; Joko Wiratmo; Plato Martuani Siregar
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 8, No 2 (2011)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

 Thunderstorms is a weather condition that is harmful to the flight activities. The potential thunderstorms (especially thermal thunderstorms) assesment for Indonesia in particular Biak area needs to be done to reduce the risk of bad thunderstorms to flight activity at airports Frans Kaisiepo Biak. The thunderstorms is affected by the existence of water vapor in the atmosphere. The content of water vapor in the atmosphere can be estimated from the value of precipitable water, while atmospheric instability conditions can be identified from the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), assuming an air parcel at the surface is heated until it reaches the temperature of the convective (TC) so that air parcels can be lifted up to convective condensation level (CCL) and it condensate. Logistic regression is one of mathematical models approach that can be used to describe the relationship between the independent variables with response variables that are bound dikotomik (event and non-event). By using observation data of surface and upper air in 2006-2009 analysis of air instability and its relation to the probability of thunderstorm occurrence is carried out. Results show that precipitable water between surface and 300 hPa height has correlation and directly proportional to the probability of thunderstorm occurrence, and convective temperature (TC) has correlation and inversely proportional to the probability of thunderstorm occurrence. While CAPE at CCL to 300 hPa height has not correlation to the probability occurrence of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm probability model has 58.8% of accuracy. Keywords:Thunderstorms, Precipitable water, Convective temperature, CAPE, Logistic regression
Propagation Characteristics of Madden Julian Oscillation in the Indonesian Maritime Continent: Case Studies for 2020-2022 Istiqomah, Fadhilatul; Yulihastin, Erma; Wiratmo, Joko; Hermawan, Eddy; Trilaksono, Nurjanna Joko; Irawan, Dasapta Erwin; Yohanes, Kristy Natasha; Ayunina, Amalia Qurrotu
Agromet Vol. 38 No. 1 (2024): JUNE 2024
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.38.1.1-12

Abstract

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can affect weather and climate variability in the Indonesian Maritime Continent. MJO propagation is not always the same, previous research has classified MJO into 4 categories: slow, fast, stand, and jump. The objective of this study is to investigate the differences in MJO propagation and the factors that impact it. Daily data for variables such as Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), zonal wind, and sea surface temperature are utilized in this research. The collected data is processed using composite methods based on the 8 MJO phases, with a specific focus on the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. The research findings suggest that warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and zonal winds dominated by Kelvin waves are favorable for MJO propagation. Conversely, cooling sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and zonal winds dominated by equatorial Rossby waves can hinder MJO propagation. Future researchers are expected to examine the impact of MJO propagation during extreme rainfall occurrences in several regions of Indonesia, as well as the application of machine learning and deep learning methods to predict MJO propagation in the future.
Pelatihan Calon Garda Depan Informasi Cuaca, Musim, dan Iklim Indonesia Wiratmo, Joko; Siregar, Plato Martuani
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bangsa Vol. 2 No. 7 (2024): September
Publisher : Amirul Bangun Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59837/jpmba.v2i7.1341

Abstract

Peningkatan pemahaman masyarakat akan adanya perubahan iklim dapat meningkatkan kesadaran dan minat masyarakat untuk berperan serta dalam mitigasi perubahan iklim. Kegiatan webinar ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan peran serta masyarakat terdidik dalam menanggapi isu perubahan iklim dan memperkuat interaksi antara berbagai pihak dalam upaya mitigasi perubahan iklim di Indonesia. Metode yang digunakan adalah edukasi melalui webinar bertema "Calon Garda Depan Cuaca dan Iklim," yang diadakan pada 21 Maret 2024 sebagai bagian dari peringatan Hari Meteorologi Sedunia. Webinar ini melibatkan pembicara dari berbagai instansi, seperti BMKG, ITB, UNSRI, BRIN, UNDIP, dan UNHAS, serta diikuti oleh 163 peserta dari 29 provinsi dengan latar belakang beragam. Metode webinar dipilih untuk mencapai jangkauan peserta yang luas dengan memberikan kesempatan interaksi langsung dengan para ahli. Kegiatan ini tidak hanya berhasil meningkatkan pemahaman masyarakat tentang isu perubahan iklim tetapi juga membentuk jejaring garda depan informasi cuaca dan iklim yang lebih kuat, sehingga diharapkan dapat meningkatkan kolaborasi antara pemerintah, sektor swasta, perguruan tinggi, masyarakat, dan media massa dalam menghadapi tantangan perubahan iklim yang semakin kompleks.
ENSO and IOD Influence on Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia: Historical and Future Analysis Hanifa, Risyda; Wiratmo, Joko
Agromet Vol. 38 No. 2 (2024): DECEMBER 2024
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.38.2.78-87

Abstract

Indonesia, as a maritime continent, is vulnerable to environmental disasters such as floods and landslides due to extreme rainfall. This study aims to identify changes in the influence of ENSO and IOD on extreme rainfall across Indonesia, specifically during the September-October-November period. We used rainfall and sea surface temperature data from the CMIP6 climate model for the historical period (1985-2014), near-future (2031-2060), and far-future (2061-2090) projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 climate scenarios. The relation between rainfall dan ENSO/IOD was simply defined by linear regression approach. We analyzed the change of influence by comparing the historical and the future condition. The results indicated that the changes in the teleconnection of ENSO and IOD to extreme rainfall in future is consistently negative, except for Java (near-future) and Kalimantan and southern Sumatra (far-future). Our finding revealed that significant changes in the teleconnection varied throughout maritime continent. The maximum change was found in Northern Kalimantan, which reached values of -80 mm/°C due to ENSO and -180 mm/°C due to IOD for near future. These findings highlight the spatial variability in teleconnection changes across Indonesia, underscoring the need for region-specific climate adaptation measures in response to evolving extreme rainfall patterns.
Rintisan Kawasan Binaan di Lereng Selatan Gunung Manglayang Jawa Barat Wiratmo, Joko; Irawan, Dasapta Erwin; Sulistyawati, Endah
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bangsa Vol. 2 No. 8 (2024): Oktober
Publisher : Amirul Bangun Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59837/jpmba.v2i8.1437

Abstract

Wilayah lereng Selatan Gunung Manglayang Jawa Barat, mengalami kerusakan lingkungan akibat perkembangan pembangunan sebagai kota pendidikan dan pemukiman, termasuk penurunan kualitas air tanah dan krisis air bersih. Program “Keluarga Sadar Lingkungan” (Kadarling) dirancang untuk meningkatkan kesadaran generasi muda terhadap pelestarian lingkungan yang dirintis untuk wilayah binaan  selatan Manglayang. Kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat berupa pelatihan ini dilakukan di SMA Negeri 24 Bandung yang diikuti oleh 72 siswa yang terbagi dalam dua kelompok yakni kelompok pertama mengikuti sesi edukatif mengenai cuaca, iklim, air tanah, dan peranan pohon dalam ekosistem, sementara kelompok kedua terlibat dalam praktikum pengukuran porositas tanah, pengamatan awan, dan teknik penanaman pohon. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan peningkatan pemahaman mahasiswa tentang interaksi antara faktor-faktor lingkungan tersebut dan memberikan keterampilan praktis terkait konservasi lingkungan. Program ini diharapkan  efektif dalam meningkatkan kesadaran lingkungan siswa dan keluarganya serta memberikan kontribusi positif terhadap penghijauan di lingkungan sekolah.
STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDS USING THE CLIMATE HAZARD INDEX IN INDONESIA Wir, Joko Wiratmo; Robbani, Ismail; Susandi, Armi
Bulletin of Geology Vol 8 No 1 (2024): Bulletin of Geology Vol. 8 no. 1
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu dan Teknologi Kebumian (FITB), Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/bull.geol.2024.8.1.4

Abstract

Climate change is a serious problem for the world. It causes significant impact on ecosystems and people in all parts of the world’s continents and oceans and poses grave risks to human health, global food security and economic development. One of the steps to reduce climate change disasters is climate risk management. Climate Risk Index (CRI) is a quantitative calculation of many climate risks with thresholds specific to extreme weather and climate events that cause disasters. One of the stages in preparing the CRI is to determine a hazard valuation or Climate Hazard Index (CHI). Because the climatic conditions in Indonesia vary with rainfall, it is necessary to conduct a study to determine the CHI associated with this variable.Therefore, in this study, climate hazards that are analyzed are limited to rainfall-related hazards, which are drought and extreme rainfall events. Then the constituent components of the CHI studied are the drought index and the extreme rain index. This hazard study shows an increasing trend in each of the CHI constituent component indices with a very high frequency of hazard events occurring frequently from 1995 to 2021. June was the month that had the highest average CHI among other months throughout 1962 -2021. In terms of spatial patterns, CHI is extreme in the Indonesian region with local and equatorial rainfall patterns. Whereas in the monsoon pattern, CHI is in the medium-very low range. Furthermore, CHI can be influenced by several factors, one of which is forest land cover. The results show that when the loss of forest land cover increases, the CHI value and its component index will also increase in the short term. Key words: Hazard, Climate change, Climate Hazard Index, Indonesia
Empowerment of Future Frontline Indonesian Weather and Climate Information Wiratmo, Joko; Siregar, Plato Martuani
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bangsa Vol. 3 No. 8 (2025): Oktober
Publisher : Amirul Bangun Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59837/jpmba.v3i8.3220

Abstract

Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological disasters in Indonesia. However, community climate literacy is still limited, thus hampering the speed of mitigation and adaptation efforts. For this reason, a program to empower prospective vanguards of weather and climate information is held as a strategic partner of BMKG in delivering information effectively and contextually. This program is in the form of interactive webinars, online discussions, and in the future can be in the form of field training, which will be collaborated with environmentally conscious family activities (Kadarling) to increase community capacity and climate literacy. This approach is expected to strengthen an inclusive early warning system and community resilience in dealing with climate change. The main outcome of this activity is primarily the increased knowledge about weather, seasons, and climate in Indonesia, along with the enhanced networking among researchers and observers of weather and climate from various backgrounds. This is evidenced by the relatively increased number of members in the WhatsApp group that was formed, which is still related to the webinar that was held.
Rainfall Prediction Due to the Madden Julian Oscillation Factor at the Equator Firda Kusfirdianti; Joko Wiratmo
Proceedings of Malikussaleh International Conference on Multidisciplinary Studies (MICoMS) Vol. 3 (2022): Proceedings of Malikussaleh International Conference on Multidisciplinary Studies (MI
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Malikussaleh

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29103/micoms.v3i.231

Abstract

In this research, the process of spectral analysis (Fast Fourier Transform) was carried out as a step to find out the phenomena that affect rainfall in the equatorial region which are represented by the cities of Kototabang, Pontianak, Gorontalo and Biak. This is followed by predicting rainfall due to the MJO phenomenon, which is obtained after performing a Bandpass Filter with a cut off of 30 and 90 days on rainfall time series data and the Inverse Fast Fourier Transform (IFFT), using the ARIMA method. The results showed that the study area under study generally had an equatorial rainfall pattern type. This rainfall is dominantly influenced by annual (monsoon) and semi-annual (ITCZ) phenomena. There is an intra-seasonal phenomenon (MJO) although it does not have a big impact on rainfall. ARIMA provides fairly good rainfall prediction results for a short period of time. Monthly rainfall predictions show values ​​below 90 mm, with the lowest predicted rainfall occurring in January in Gorontalo (42.57 mm), and the highest in February in Biak (86.83 mm).