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All Journal JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application
Alimatun Najiha
Universitas Tadulako
Mathematics

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Journal : JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN

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Comparison of Random Survival Forest and Fuzzy Random Survival Forest Models in Telecommunications Industry Customer Data Nurhaliza, Sitti; Harismahyanti, Andi; Najiha, Alimatun
JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN Vol. 21 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/2540766X.2024.v21.i2.17498

Abstract

The telecommunications sector is facing increasing competition, and customer churn is still a majorchallenge despite the implementation of advanced promotions and high-quality services. Churn refers tothe discontinuation of services by customers, influenced by several factors that can be found through datamodeling. This study compares two predictive models, Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Fuzzy RandomSurvival Forest (FRSF), for predicting customer churn time in the telecommunications industry. Bothmodels are evaluated using the median C-index value obtained from 20 repetitions, ensuring moreconsistent and reliable results. RSF, a widely used survival analysis method, has shown strong predictivepower, with studies reporting up to 99% accuracy in churn prediction. However, FRSF, a modified versionthat incorporates fuzzy logic, has proved superior performance, particularly in handling imprecise oruncertain data. The results show that FRSF achieves a lower error rate of 0.1739, compared to RSF's errorrate of 0.1906. These findings suggest that FRSF outperforms RSF in churn prediction, making it a morereliable and righter model for finding at-risk customers. The study concludes that the FRSF model is thepreferred choice for predicting churn in the telecommunications industry, offering better predictive qualityand consistency in handling uncertain data.
Co-Authors Andi Kresna Jaya Anisa Anisa Harismahyanti A., Andi Sitti Nurhaliza