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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
Mohamad Khoirun Najib
Department of Mathematics, IPB University, Bogor Indonesia
Mathematics

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Bias Correction of Lake Toba Rainfall Data Using Quantile Delta Mapping Syukri Arif Rafhida; Sri Nurdiati; Retno Budiarti; Mohamad Khoirun Najib
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 9, No 2 (2024): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v9i2.29124

Abstract

Lake Toba, located in North Sumatra, is the largest tectonic and volcanic lake in Indonesia. Lake Toba has an equatorial climate characterized by abundant rainfall throughout the year. High rainfall, coupled with annual increases due to climate change, results in a vulnerability to the unpredictable extreme weather, causing harm to the surrounding communities. Consequently, a rainfall prediction model is needed to anticipate the impacts of such extreme rainfall. One of the rainfall prediction models used is ERA5-Land. However, this prediction model has biases that can be avoided. A method that can be used is the statistical bias correction using the quantile delta mappings (QDM) by correcting ERA5-Land model data against BMKG observation data. The QDM method used in this study employs two types of methods: monthly and full distribution. The results shows that both methods can improve biases at Silaen, Laguboti, and Doloksanggul stations, as well as improve the model during the equatorial dry seasons in May, June, July, and August. However, the first method improves the model distribution more in Silaen and Laguboti, while the second method improves the model distribution more in Doloksanggul.
Co-Authors Retno Budiarti Sri Nurdiati Syukri Arif Rafhida