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All Journal Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Papanda Journal of Mathematics and Sciences Research
Elza Ully Tiara Tampubolon
Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia
Education Mathematics

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Analisis peramalan curah hujan di provinsi jawa barat menggunakan pendekatan sarima Talitha Argyanti; Elza Ully Tiara Tampubolon
Papanda Journal of Mathematics and Science Research Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): Volume 5 Nomor 1 Maret 2026
Publisher : Papanda Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56916/pjmsr.v5i1.3352

Abstract

Rainfall constitutes a fundamental climatic factor with a crucial influence on hydrological processes, agricultural production, and the mitigation of hydrometeorological hazards. In West Java Province, rainfall exhibits substantial variability and a strong annual seasonal cycle, largely driven by intricate monsoon systems and diverse topographical conditions. These characteristics necessitate the application of a reliable modeling framework capable of accurately representing seasonal behavior. This study seeks to analyze and forecast monthly rainfall in West Java Province using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) approach, with particular emphasis on assessing its performance in a region marked by pronounced spatial and temporal rainfall variability. Monthly rainfall observations obtained from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) for the period 1995–2023 were employed in the analysis. Data preprocessing involved the application of a Box–Cox transformation to stabilize variance, followed by seasonal differencing with a 12-month lag to address seasonal non-stationarity. Model identification was conducted through examination of the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), while model selection relied on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The findings reveal that the selected SARIMA model successfully represents the dominant annual monsoonal rainfall pattern in West Java, as supported by residual diagnostic tests indicating satisfactory statistical adequacy. Forecasting results further show that the predicted rainfall values closely track historical dynamics, with forecast uncertainty increasing as the prediction horizon extends. Overall, this study underscores the ongoing relevance of SARIMA as a baseline forecasting model in monsoon-influenced regions and offers practical insights for seasonal water management, flood and drought risk reduction, and the enhancement of rainfall-based early warning systems in West Java Province
Pemodelan Spasio-Temporal HIV/AIDS dan Hepatitis B & C di Jawa Tengah Menggunakan Model Bayesian Multivariat Elza Ully Tiara Tampubolon; Bagus Kusuma
Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Maret 2026
Publisher : Pendidikan Matematika FKIP Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/griya.v6i1.1018

Abstract

HIV/AIDS serta Hepatitis B dan C merupakan penyakit menular yang hingga saat ini masih menjadi permasalahan serius dalam kesehatan masyarakat, mengingat tingginya beban morbiditas dan mortalitas serta kesamaan jalur penularannya. Di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, jumlah kasus kedua penyakit ini tergolong signifikan dengan pola sebaran yang tidak merata antar kabupaten/kota, sehingga memerlukan pendekatan analisis yang mampu menangkap variasi spasial dan temporal secara simultan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pola risiko HIV/AIDS dan Hepatitis B & C menggunakan Bayesian Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Model dengan pendekatan Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). Data yang digunakan bersumber dari BPJS Kesehatan periode 2019–2023 yang mencakup 35 kabupaten/kota di Jawa Tengah. Hasil evaluasi model menunjukkan bahwa kombinasi prior spasial pCAR, prior temporal RW1, serta interaksi spasio-temporal Type I memberikan kinerja terbaik, ditunjukkan oleh nilai DIC sebesar 4007,37, WAIC sebesar 3925,16, dan Log Score sebesar 11113,66. Analisis korelasi mengindikasikan adanya hubungan spasial positif yang cukup kuat antara HIV/AIDS dan Hepatitis B & C, yang menunjukkan kecenderungan wilayah berisiko tinggi pada satu penyakit juga berisiko tinggi pada penyakit lainnya. Sebaliknya, korelasi temporal teridentifikasi lemah dan tidak konsisten, mencerminkan perbedaan dinamika waktu kedua penyakit. Pemetaan risiko relatif mengungkap klaster wilayah berisiko tinggi yang berulang pada beberapa kabupaten/kota tertentu. Temuan ini menegaskan efektivitas pendekatan Bayesian multivariat sebagai dasar perumusan kebijakan intervensi kesehatan berbasis wilayah.
Co-Authors Bagus Kusuma Talitha Argyanti