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All Journal Infolitika Journal of Data Science
Ulhaq , Muhammad Zia
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering

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Optimizing Energy Consumption Prediction Across the IMT-GT Region Through PCA-Based Modeling Farid, Muhammad; Nuzullah, Teuku Muhammad Faiz; Aklya, Zatul; Nazila, Syifa; Ulhaq , Muhammad Zia; Apriliansyah, Feby; Sasmita, Novi Reandy
Infolitika Journal of Data Science Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): May 2025
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/ijds.v3i1.286

Abstract

This study aims to improve the accuracy of energy consumption prediction in the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT) region by addressing multicollinearity among independent variables such as energy production (Mtoe), lignite coal production (million tons), crude oil production (million tons), refined oil production (million tons), natural gas production (billion cubic meters), and electricity production (terawatt-hours). By integrating Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with Random Forest (RF), six correlated variables were reduced into two uncorrelated principal components (PC1 and PC2), explaining 80.77% of the data variance. The PCA-RF hybrid model outperformed the standalone Random Forest (RF) model, with an increase in the coefficient of determination (R2) from 0.976 to 0.993. Additionally, it achieved significant reductions in error metrics, with the mean absolute error (MAE) decreasing from 5.811 to 4.169 and the root mean square error (RMSE) dropping from 9.278 to 4.786. These results demonstrate PCA’s effectiveness in isolating dominant drivers such as energy and lignite coal production while improving model stability. The framework provides policymakers with a reliable tool to forecast energy demand and align economic growth with sustainability in fossil fuel-dependent economies.
Co-Authors Aklya, Zatul Apriliansyah, Feby Muhammad Farid Nazila, Syifa Nuzullah, Teuku Muhammad Faiz Sasmita, Novi Reandy