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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal GAMMA-PI
Zebua, Feber Wati
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Transportation

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Efektivitas Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Dari Brown Untuk Meramalkan Jumlah Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang Tahun 2022-2023 Zebua, Feber Wati; Muliani, Fitra; Saiman, Saiman
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 4 No 2 (2022): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/jgp.v4i2.5576

Abstract

Produk Domestik Regional Bruto adalah nilai tambah yang dihasilkan oleh seluruh unit ekonomi dalam daerah tertentu. PDRB di Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang mengalami peningkatan tiap tahunnya, namun perlu ditingkatkan lagi agar sesuai dengan standar nasional. Oleh karena itu perlu diketahui jumlah PDRB dimasa yang akan datang di Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui efektivitas metode Exponential Smoothing dalam meramalkan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto dan untuk mengetahui hasil ramalan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto di Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang Tahun 2022 s/d 2023. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder yaitu jumlah PDRB yang diperoleh dari kantor BPS Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang pada tahun 2012 – 2021. Data yang didapat dari BPS Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang di analisis dengan menggunakan metode Pemulusan (Smoothing) Exponential Linier Satu Parameter Brown. Berdasarkan analisis yang dilakukan diperoleh yaitu efektivitas metode Exponential Smoothing dalam meramalkan PDRB di Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang sangat baik, dengan menggunakan = 0.7 memiliki nilai MAPE terkecil yaitu sebesar 0.06%. Diperoleh jumlah PDRB di Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang pada Tahun 2022 adalah sebesar 6167234.97104 dan tahun 2023 adalah sebesar 6256538.30308, dengan persentase berturut-turut meningkat sebesar 0.69% dan 1.44%. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pada tahun 2022 s/d 2023 PDRB di Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang mengalami peningkatan.
APPLICATION OF CAUSAL FORECASTING METHOD TO FORECAST SHALLOT PRODUCTION IN NORTH SUMATRA PROVINCE Zebua, Feber Wati; Fairus, Fairus; Amelia, Amelia
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 2 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp0667-0680

Abstract

Shallot are one of the superior horticultural commodities that has a great influence on the economic value and daily needs of society. The province of North Sumatra is a strategic region for producing shallot, making the province the eighth largest producer of shallot in Indonesia. The need and consumer demand for shallot along with the increasing population is a problem, as by 2021 the amount of shallot production in the household sector will only be met by 11% in the North Sumatra province. The authors are therefore interested in studying the factors that influence shallot production and predicting the amount of shallot production in the future North Sumatra province. The source of data the research was carried out by the Agricultural Department of the Province of North Sumatra. The study was conducted using Causal Forecasting and ARIMA methods. The causal forecasting method used is the econometric method. The econometric method is a method for analyzing and predicting future conditions by finding and measuring several important independent variables and their influence on the variables. Dependents are observed. The ARIMA method is used to predict exogenous variables from the results of the analysis performed. Based on the analysis, it is obtained that the factors affecting the amount of shallot production are the quantity of productivity and the extent of the onion harvest. The greater the amount of productivity and the size of the harvest, the more shallot production will increase. The result of the production forecast obtained is the lowest amount of shallot production occurred in April 2022 at 5212,763 tons and the highest amount produced on the onion occurs in March 2023 at 6502,112 tonnes and the average monthly amount of production is 5856,886 tons.
Co-Authors Amelia Amelia Fairus, Fairus Muliani, Fitra Saiman Saiman