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p-Index From 2020 - 2025
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All Journal Agro Bali: Agricultural Journal Journal of Agriculture (JoA)
Fitri, Febti Aulia
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry

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Martket Market Share Analysis and Forcasting Export Trend of Indonesian Palm Oil: Response to Trade War 2025 Fitri, Febti Aulia; Hidayanti, Anna Apriana; Setiawan, Rifani Nur Sindy
Journal of Agriculture Vol. 4 No. 01 (2025): Research Articles March 2025
Publisher : ITScience (Information Technology and Science)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47709/joa.v4i01.5921

Abstract

The tariff war between the US and China in 2025 is a signal for Indonesia as the world's largest palm oil exporter that relies on both markets. Market diversification needs to be carried out to avoid instability and uncertain conditions. This study aims to analyze market share through the competitiveness of palm oil in 5 main export destination countries. The EPD method is used with secondary data from 2013-2023. After identifying the countries with the most potential for market penetration, the forecast of the value of Indonesian palm oil exports to these countries was carried out using the ARIMA method with monthly secondary data from January 2013 to May 2023. The EPD analysis results show that Pakistan has the highest Rising Star position, which means it has the greatest potential to be used as a destination for Indonesian palm oil exports. Meanwhile, the results of the ARIMA modelling found that the most appropriate forecasting model was ARIMA (1,1,1) without a constant. As a result, the forecast of the value of Indonesian palm oil exports to Pakistan shows a significant upward trend of 0.4% per month. This study found that the Pakistani market could be used as an export destination to diversify the market and, simultaneously, as an entry point to surrounding countries to prioritize the sustainability of the Indonesian palm oil trade.
How Indonesian Coconut Oil Competes in China: La/Aids Model Approach Fitri, Febti Aulia; Noval, Bahieddin
Journal of Agriculture Vol. 4 No. 03 (2025): Research Articles, November 2025
Publisher : ITScience (Information Technology and Science)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47709/joa.v4i03.6674

Abstract

Coconut oil is a promising commodity for Indonesia, with increasing global demand in the last decade. Indonesia must take advantage of this moment by increasing its competitiveness. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness of coconut oil exports relative to rival products in the Chinese market. The research uses secondary data from 1993 to 2022 and is analyzed using the LA/AIDS demand model. The findings indicate that Indonesian coconut oil has a 50% demand share and is the highest in the Chinese market. The elasticity of expenditure is 1.58 (E > 1), indicating it is elastic and of the best quality. According to the own-price elasticity, Indonesian coconut oil is negative (-1.532), so it is elastic and experiences a decrease in demand when the price increases. Meanwhile, the cross-price elasticity is positive, indicating that the relationship between Indonesian and Philippine coconut oil is substitutive or competitive. Indonesia and Malaysia show a complementary relationship. However, when viewed in reverse, it shows a substitution relationship. Based on this analysis, Indonesia has the opportunity to control the coconut oil trade in the Chinese market and potentially in other markets if it can optimize its competitiveness.
Determining Factors of Indonesian Coffee Demand in the US Market: Using LA/AIDS Approach Fitri, Febti Aulia; Syafrial, Syafrial; Toiba, Hery
Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal Vol 7, No 3 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Panji Sakti

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37637/ab.v7i3.1822

Abstract

Indonesia has long been the largest coffee producer and exporter in the world. However, competing Asian countries, namely Vietnam and India, dominate the world coffee trade as ranked fourth and sixth. To face increasingly competitive market conditions, it is necessary to look at the determinants of demand for Indonesian coffee and its competition. This research provides an update using the LA/AIDS (Linear Approximate Almost Demand System) model approach to explore the factors that influence demand for coffee from Indonesia, Vietnam, and India, focusing on price elasticity and coffee expenditure elasticity in the US market. The data is time series data from 1992-2021 and the US market as the destination country. The results show that the factors influencing demand for Indonesian coffee in the US are expenditure, Indian coffee prices, GDP per capita, population, unemployment rate, and CPI. Coffee from Indonesia is sensitive to US spending changes (1,010%) and elastic. The price elasticity value for Indonesian coffee has a negative sign. The cross-price elasticity value of Indonesian coffee compared to Vietnamese coffee is complementary, whereas Vietnamese coffee to Indonesian coffee is a substitute. Meanwhile, Indonesian coffee is complementary to Indian coffee and vice versa.
Co-Authors Anna Apriana Hidayanti Hery Toiba Noval, Bahieddin Rifani Nur Sindy Setiawan Syafrial Syafrial