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All Journal JOURNAL OF APPLIED MANAGERIAL ACCOUNTING Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics
Khairullah, Aulia
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Environmental Science

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Journal : Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics

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Energy Dependence, Trade Balance, and Current Account Sustainability: Evidence From ASEAN-5 Agustina, Maulidar; Majid, M. Shabri Abd.; Thahira, Zia; Dinda, Lidyana; Khairullah, Aulia; Sakuntala, Dwita
Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/eje.v3i2.341

Abstract

This study investigates how energy dependence and trade structure influence current-account sustainability in the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam) over 2014–2023. Focusing on the region’s vulnerability to energy price volatility and evolving trade patterns, the analysis evaluates long- and short-run relationships between the current account, energy trade balance, overall trade balance, real GDP per capita, and exchange rate movements. A panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator is applied, and long-run robustness is verified using panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). The results confirm a stable long-run equilibrium in which both energy and non-energy trade balances significantly and positively contribute to current-account positions. Higher real income and a depreciated exchange rate are also associated with sustained current-account improvements, reflecting capacity expansion and expenditure-switching effects. Short-run adjustments differ across countries, shaped by their import dependence, energy mix, and external balance-sheet conditions. Robustness checks affirm the stability of the estimated long-run relationships. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening energy trade resilience, enhancing non-energy tradable sectors, and maintaining prudent exchange-rate flexibility to support external sustainability in the ASEAN-5.
Co-Authors Abdul Malik Fajri Agustina, Maulidar Cut Darmawati Dinda, Lidyana Dwita Sakuntala M. Shabri Abd. Majid miraza, chairanisa natasha Riantari Maharani Thahira, Zia