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All Journal Saturnus: Jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi
Raditya Thabroni Romadhon
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Computer Science & IT

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Peramalan Harga Bitcoin Menggunakan Metode Moving Average Asrorul Faradis; Raditya Thabroni Romadhon; Soffiana Agustin
Saturnus : Jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): Juli : Saturnus : Jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Teknik Elektro dan Informatika Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/saturnus.v3i3.952

Abstract

Bitcoin is one of the most prominent digital assets in the modern financial era due to its high volatility and huge profit potential. However, its extreme price volatility also makes it a high-risk asset, so a reliable forecasting approach is needed to help investors make more rational decisions. This study aims to forecast Bitcoin price using the Moving Average (MA) method, specifically MA3, by utilizing monthly historical data of Bitcoin price in USD currency obtained from investing.com website. The MA3 method was chosen for its ability to smooth out short-term fluctuations and identify the direction of price trends. The forecasting process is performed by calculating the average of the last three months' prices for each point in time and compared to the actual price to evaluate its accuracy. The evaluation is done using various prediction error metrics, namely Error, Absolute Error, Squared Error, and Percentage Error. The results of the analysis show that the MA method provides a fairly representative picture of price trends and can be used as an early indicator in short-term investment strategies. Thus, the Moving Average method proves to be a simple but effective prediction tool, especially for novice investors in the dynamic crypto asset market.
Co-Authors Asrorul Faradis Soffiana Agustin, Soffiana