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All Journal Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian Return : Study of Management, Economic and Bussines
Emily, Lindsay Carnelian
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Aerospace Engineering Automotive Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Electrical & Electronics Engineering Mathematics

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Dynamic Capital Structure Adjustment in an Emerging Market: Asymmetric Responses, Macroeconomic Drivers, and COVID-19 Evidence from Indonesia’s Property Sector Lestari, Reni; Emily, Lindsay Carnelian
Return : Study of Management, Economic and Bussines Vol. 4 No. 7 (2025): Return: Study of Management, Economic and Business
Publisher : PT. Publikasiku Academic Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57096/return.v4i7.380

Abstract

This study explores capital structure dynamic adjustment in Indonesia's property industry between slow and fast capital adjustments, using 42 listed firms as panel data from 2015 to 2024. By employing System GMM estimators and the threshold model to investigate the speed of adjustment (SOA) and the influence of macroeconomic variables and creditor behavior on leverage during the COVID-19 crisis. We identified a SOA moderately between 22–24% during normal conditions increasing to an SOA of dramatically to 44.5%, indicating considerable asymmetric adjustment behavior, during a dividend or issued-stock financing shift. The onset of COVID-19 temporarily increased leverage by a mean of 2.6 percentage points, which later returned to pre-crisis leverage paths over time. Interest rates emerged as a prominent macroeconomic variable, notably reducing leverage, with a distinctive role for the real estate sector in Indonesia, highlighting the sector's sensibility to monetary policy shifts. Overall, the results robustly confirmed both pecking order and trade-off theory, while also recognizing distinct institutional features of Indonesia's property market, including the relatively mute role of tangible collateral in financing decisions. The study provides useful empirical and practical insights for corporate managers making capital structure decisions in volatile emerging market environments and for policymakers considering stability-inducing interventions in capital-intensive sectors.
Threshold Dynamics Of Investor Overconfidence And Trading Activity: Evidence From Indonesia’s Stock Market Emily, Lindsay Carnelian; Lestari, Reni
Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian Vol. 4 No. 10 (2025): : JURNAL LOCUS: Penelitian dan Pengabdian
Publisher : Riviera Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58344/locus.v4i10.4904

Abstract

This research explores the threshold dynamics of investor overconfidence in the Indonesian equity market using daily data from firms comprising the IDX80 (2015-2024). We proxy for overconfidence using excess turnover and analyze it with fixed-effects panel regression, and with Hansen's (1999) panel threshold model. We found that excess turnover significantly affects trading activity, the lagged returns reinforced self-attribution bias, and the smaller or undervalued firms primarily garnered speculative trading. The threshold analysis revealed regime dependency: firm-specific returns exceeding 1.15% will nearly double the trading intensity and if the volatility exceeds 2.61% either condition would have nearly tripled effect. Aggregate returns do not condition the overconfidence-trading link. These findings contribute to behavioral finance by suggesting that overconfidence is not static but intensified as strong performance and high volatility are observed. Practically, the indicators at the thresholds offer regulators early-warning indicators of speculative surges and offer investors risk management strategies even amid such risks. .
Co-Authors Reni Lestari