Aradea Margareta
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FLUKTUASI NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH & DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP IMPOR KEDELAI DARI AMERIKA SERIKAT KE INDONESIA PERIODE 2018 - 2024 Ratu Aribah Santika Xaviera; Aisyah Fahriza Anindita; Alfina Marta; Aradea Margareta; Rara Marcella; Ahmad Setiawan Nuraya
OIKOS: Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 9 No 2 (2025): OIKOS: Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Ilmu Ekonomi
Publisher : Fakultas Keguruan Dan Ilmu Pendidikan Universitas Pasundan

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate and the volume of soybean imports from the United States to Indonesia during the period 2018-2024. The data used includes the average exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar per year, the volume of soybean imports per year, as well as relevant macroeconomic factors such as global soybean prices, government import policies, and domestic demand. The analysis shows that the rupiah exchange rate experienced significant fluctuations during the period, especially in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and in 2022 due to global economic instability. These fluctuations significantly affected the volume of soybean imports, where a weakening exchange rate tends to decrease the volume of imports due to increased import costs in rupiah terms. Descriptive statistics show that there is a negative correlation between the exchange rate and import volume, which is confirmed through linear regression analysis. The regression results show that the rupiah exchange rate has a significant effect on the volume of soybean imports from the United States. In addition, other variables such as world soybean prices, subsidy and import duty policies, and demand from the domestic industry also influence fluctuations in import volume. Thus, the stability of the rupiah exchange rate is a key factor in maintaining a smooth and adequate supply of imported soybeans, which is very important for the national food industry.
Gross Regional Domestic Product and Rice Production: Determinants of Farmer Welfare in Java Rizki Khairani Hasibuan; Aradea Margareta; Aulia Biea Bellia; Melliani Septiawati; Amelia Indah Putri Cahyani; Ahmad Setiawan Nuraya
Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Vol. 4 No. 3 (2026): August: Jurnal Riset Akuntansi
Publisher : Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis (ITB) Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54066/jura-itb.v4i3.4108

Abstract

The purpose is to analyze the effects of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and Rice Production (RP) on Farmers’ Terms of Trade (FTT) as a proxy for farmers’ welfare in East Java, Central Java, and West Java. This research method use a quantitative approach was employed using panel data consisting of 42 observations from three provinces over the period from the first quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2025. Secondary data were obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and analyzed using panel data regression with EViews 12. Model selection was conducted through the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests, followed by hypothesis testing using the t-test, F-test, and coefficient of determination (Adjusted R²). The results reveal that GRDP has a positive and significant effect on FTT (β = 58.268; p < 0.05), indicating that regional economic growth contributes to improving farmers’ welfare. In contrast, rice production has a negative but insignificant effect on FTT (β = -0.229; p > 0.05), suggesting that increased production alone does not necessarily improve farmers’ welfare due to factors such as price fluctuations and production costs. Simultaneously, the model is statistically significant and explains 88.28% of the variation in FTT.  That policies aimed at improving farmers’ welfare should not focus solely on increasing agricultural production but should also promote inclusive regional economic growth, price stabilization, and efficient agricultural marketing systems. Future studies are encouraged to incorporate additional variables and broader geographical coverage to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the determinants of farmers’ welfare.