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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Agro Bali: Agricultural Journal
Patricia Srisere Ikaria Situmorang
Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty Of Agriculture, Sumatera Utara University, Medan 20155, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry

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Indonesia’s Mangosteen Export Risk Management Strategy to China Ayu, Sri Fajar; Situmorang, Patricia Srisere Ikaria
Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal Vol 8, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Panji Sakti

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37637/ab.v8i2.2418

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the leading global producers of mangosteen, with China absorbing over 70% of its export volume. Despite this, Indonesia’s market share remains limited compared to its competitors, such as Thailand. This study examines the short- and long-term relationships between key macroeconomic variables—mangosteen export price (HEC), export value (NE), Yuan to USD exchange rate (NTC), Rupiah to USD exchange rate (NTI), Indonesia’s real exchange rate (NTR), and export volume (VE)—and the performance of exports to China using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), which is appropriate for examining both long-run equilibrium (cointegration) and short-run dynamics among the macroeconomic variables. The model captures cointegration, causal interactions, impulse responses, and variance decomposition. Findings indicate that, in the long run, NTC, NTI, NTR, and VE have a significant influence on export prices, while no statistically significant short-run causality is observed. Key risks identified include exchange rate volatility, over-reliance on the Chinese market, price fluctuations, high logistics costs, and inconsistent product quality. To mitigate these issues, the study recommends exchange rate stabilization, export market diversification, investment in cold chain logistics, and the adoption of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) with digital traceability systems. The findings support the formulation of evidence-based policies to strengthen the global competitiveness of Indonesia’s horticultural exports.
Farmers’ Risk Behavior in Organic and Inorganic Rice Farming Sri Fajar Ayu; Patricia Srisere Ikaria Situmorang; Meutia Nauly; Iman Arman
Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Vol. 31 No. 2 (2026): Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18343/jipi.31.2.326

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to compare the productivity, income, and risk-taking behaviors of organic and non-organic rice farmers in Serdang Bedagai Regency, North Sumatra Province. The study took a descriptive-quantitative approach, surveying 62 rice producers (31 organic and 31 non-organic). The analysis included measures of productivity, income, production, and income risk, as well as a sensitivity analysis to analyze the impact of price and cost changes. The results demonstrate that organic rice productivity (1,924 kg/ha) was lower than non-organic rice (4,668 kg/ha); however, overall net income for organic farming (IDR 32.15 million/ha) was higher than non-organic farming (IDR 27.28 million/ha) due to more stable and higher rice prices. Production and income risks are better managed in organic farming, with lower variation coefficients than in non-organic systems. The sensitivity analysis shows that even with a 20% fall in selling price or a 20% rise in production expenses, organic rice cultivation still earns a profit. Most organic farmers are risk averse, whereas non-organic farmers are more willing to take risks. These data support the claim that organic rice cultivation is more economically viable and environmentally sustainable than conventional systems. Keywords: income, organic rice, risk behavior, sensitivity analysis, sustainability
Co-Authors Iman Arman Meutia Nauly Sri Fajar Ayu Sri Fajar Ayu