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All Journal Jurnal Varian
Meliyana, Hesti
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Forecasting the Amount of Water Discharge Based on the VARIMA Model Meliyana, Hesti; Hadijati, Mustika; Harsyiah, Lisa
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i2.3278

Abstract

Water is an absolutely necessary substance for every living thing. Clean water is the main requirement for ensuring human health and the environment PT. Air Minum Giri Menang (Perseroda). The purpose of this study is to determine the model and then predict the water discharge of PT. Air Minum Giri Menang using the obtained model which will be useful for the community and agencies so that the management, distribution, and use of clean water are more optimal. The method used in this study is VARIMA (Vector Autoregressive Integrate Moving Average) which can process data for more than one variable. The data used in this study is water discharge data produced and distributed in the period January 2018 to December 2021. The results show that the best model obtained is VARIMA(0,1,1) with model accuracy for water discharge data that produced and distributed based on the MAPE value of 4% and 5% which states that the forecasting results can be categorized as very good. This means that the VARIMA (0,1,1) model has provided very accurate results in predicting water discharge with very small forecasting errors, thus indicating that the model is very effective. Suggestions for further research are look for the alternative forecasting method that are overcome non-stationarity data other than data transformation.
Co-Authors Harsyiah, Lisa Mustika Hadijati