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All Journal Perspektif : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen Universitas Bina Sarana Informatika
Veronica Gea, Imelda
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Environmental Science Social Sciences

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War Shocks on Export Lanes: Is World Trade Performance Slowing Down? Hotsawadi, Hotsawadi; Veronica Gea, Imelda; Nuzulia, Nuzulia
Perspektif : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen Akademi Bina Sarana Informatika Vol 23, No 2 (2025): Bulan September 2025
Publisher : www.bsi.ac.id

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31294/jp.v23i2.27433

Abstract

In recent years, geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts have had a significant impact on the global trading order. For this reason, this study aims to analyze the relationship between international armed conflict and estimated export performance using the ARDL Panel Model. The results of the estimation using the ARDL Panel Model show that military conflicts have a significant negative impact on export performance in the long run, reflecting the vulnerability of international trade to geopolitical instability. On the other hand, real GDP, population, and investment exhibit significant positive influences that enhance production capacity, expand markets, and improve export competitiveness in the global market. These findings suggest that domestic factors that support economic growth play a crucial role in maintaining export resilience, despite external challenges such as military conflicts and fluctuations in exchange rates. The real exchange rate has been shown to have a negative impact, suggesting that currency appreciation can erode the competitiveness of export prices. Therefore, exchange rate stability is a crucial factor that must be maintained
Co-Authors Harahap, Hotsawadi Nuzulia, Nuzulia