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All Journal Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah JIAN (Jurnal Ilmiah Administrasi Negara)
Hirawan, Fajar
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences

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A Macroeconomic Determinants of Domestic Revenue Generation in Sierra Leone: A Fiscal Policy Perspective Kamara, Ishmael; Gunawan, Indra; Hirawan, Fajar
JIAN (Jurnal Ilmiah Administrasi Negara) Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): September 2025
Publisher : Universitas Bojonegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56071/jian.v9i3.1486

Abstract

This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of domestic revenue mobilization in Sierra Leone to propose effective strategies for enhancing public sector revenue. Using a conceptual framework, the study focuses on key independent variables such as real GDP, government expenditure, inflation, domestic debt, population growth, and the tax-to-GDP ratio. It analyses their influence on domestic revenue performance. The research adopts a quantitative ARDL methodology, utilizing time series data from 2001 to 2024 to identify long- and short-run relationships among the variables. The findings reveal a long-term relationship among the variables, while real GDP, inflation, population growth, and tax effort positively and significantly influence domestic revenue; government expenditure and domestic debt show a negative and significant long-term relationship. In the short run, however, lagged government expenditure and domestic debt appear to have a positive effect. These results suggest that short-term fiscal injections can boost revenue, but unsustainable expenditure and borrowing weaken long-term fiscal health. The study concludes that a balanced and transparent fiscal strategy anchored on growth-friendly policies, debt sustainability, and efficient public spending is essential for strengthening Sierra Leone’s domestic revenue capacity.
The impact of inflation on Sierra Leone’s current account balance Kamara, Ishmael; Gunawan, Indra; Hirawan, Fajar
Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah Vol. 13 No. 6 (2026): Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah
Publisher : Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22437/ppd.v13i6.43075

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationship between inflation and the current account balance (CAB) in Sierra Leone from 1980 to 2024, with a particular focus on both short-run and long-run effects. The objective is to determine the directional impact of inflation and other macroeconomic indicators on current account performance and to provide actionable insights for economic stabilization. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and Granger causality analysis, the study assesses both equilibrium and predictive relationships among inflation, the real exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI), GDP growth, real interest rates, and trade openness. The results indicate that, in the long run, the CAB improves by approximately 0.0867 percentage points for every one-percentage-point increase in inflation, consistent with the intertemporal current account framework. The findings also suggest feedback effects between inflation and the current account, though statistical significance varies across directions. Trade openness and FDI are found to exert negative long-run effects on the current account, while their lagged effects show positive adjustments. Exchange rate dynamics and interest rates are volatile, whereas economic growth contributes positively to the external balance. Furthermore, the results reveal that inflation Granger-causes GDP growth, real interest rates, and FDI, underscoring its broader macroeconomic influence. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of coordinated fiscal, monetary, and trade policies in maintaining external stability and macroeconomic balance in Sierra Leone.
Real exchange rate misalignment and exchange rate regime dynamics: Evidence from Sierra Leone Kamara, Ishmael; Hirawan, Fajar; Gunawan, Indra
Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah Vol. 14 No. 3 (2026): Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah
Publisher : Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22437/ppd.v14i3.54406

Abstract

This study examines whether Sierra Leone’s succession of exchange-rate regimes since 1970 has been associated with changes in the alignment between the real exchange rate (RER) and its macroeconomic fundamentals. Using an Edwards–Elbadawi framework, the study combines ARDL bounds testing and error-correction modelling, Bai–Perron structural-break analysis, and forecast error variance decomposition to estimate the equilibrium RER and its misalignment over 1970–2024. The model incorporates terms of trade, trade openness, government expenditure, investment, net capital flows, a technology proxy based on real GDP growth, and the interest-rate differential. The results provide evidence of a long-run cointegrating relationship and a strong error-correction mechanism, with approximately 87% of the previous period’s disequilibrium corrected within one year. Although the full-sample average misalignment is close to zero (–0.21%), this conceals substantial variation: the Leone was undervalued in 25 years and overvalued in 30 years, with several annual deviations exceeding 30% in absolute magnitude. Regime-level average misalignment ranges from –26.48% during the liberalised but still managed float of 1986–1989 to +14.71% under the US-dollar peg of 1983–1985, while the 2010–2019 floating-with-managed-features period records the smallest absolute average misalignment (–0.12%). The Bai–Perron analysis further identifies significant breaks in the coefficient linking net capital flows to the RER in 1987, 2000, and 2010, indicating partial parameter instability rather than instability in the entire long-run relationship. Forecast error variance decomposition shows that government expenditure, trade openness, and terms of trade account for increasing shares of RER forecast uncertainty at longer horizons. Overall, the findings indicate that Sierra Leone’s RER misalignment is characterised by recurrent and sizeable deviations across changing policy and macroeconomic environments rather than by a persistent average distortion.
Co-Authors Indra Gunawan Kamara, Ishmael