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All Journal Transekonomika : Akuntansi, Bisnis dan Keuangan Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah JIAN (Jurnal Ilmiah Administrasi Negara)
Kamara, Ishmael
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences

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THE DYNAMICS OF EXCHANGE RATES, INFLATION, AND TRADE BALANCE IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY (CASE STUDY OF SIERRA LEONE) Kamara, Ishmael; Widyawati, Diah
TRANSEKONOMIKA: AKUNTANSI, BISNIS DAN KEUANGAN Vol. 4 No. 5 (2024): September 2024
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/transekonomika.v4i5.727

Abstract

Sierra Leone experiences a persistent trade deficit problem. Currently, there is a vacuum in the literature employing recent data and suitable approaches to address the issue of non-stationarity and dynamic interaction between macroeconomic variables in influencing the trade deficit in Sierra Leone. This study examines the relationship between Sierra Leone's trade balance, inflation, and exchange rate using quarterly data from 2005 Q1 to 2023 Q3. The focus is on understanding how the exchange rate and inflation impact Sierra Leone's trade balance in both the short and long term. To achieve this, the study utilizes the VAR/VECM model to depict the dynamic interaction between the trade balance, exchange rate, and inflation. It also employs Granger Causality analysis to determine the most appropriate ordering among the macroeconomic variables in the model and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis to test the hypotheses regarding the trade balance response to exchange rate shocks and inflation. The empirical results confirm the existence of cointegration, indicating a long-term balance between the trade balance, exchange rate, inflation, and other macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth and interest rate differentials. Moreover, the dynamic prediction analysis using the IRF method supports the J-curve hypothesis in Sierra Leone and suggests that inflation can reduce the performance of the trade balance. These findings highlight the need for Sierra Leone to implement a comprehensive strategy to adjust the exchange rate and curb inflation to improve the trade balance and enhance external economic stability.
A Macroeconomic Determinants of Domestic Revenue Generation in Sierra Leone: A Fiscal Policy Perspective Kamara, Ishmael; Gunawan, Indra; Hirawan, Fajar
JIAN (Jurnal Ilmiah Administrasi Negara) Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): September 2025
Publisher : Universitas Bojonegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56071/jian.v9i3.1486

Abstract

This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of domestic revenue mobilization in Sierra Leone to propose effective strategies for enhancing public sector revenue. Using a conceptual framework, the study focuses on key independent variables such as real GDP, government expenditure, inflation, domestic debt, population growth, and the tax-to-GDP ratio. It analyses their influence on domestic revenue performance. The research adopts a quantitative ARDL methodology, utilizing time series data from 2001 to 2024 to identify long- and short-run relationships among the variables. The findings reveal a long-term relationship among the variables, while real GDP, inflation, population growth, and tax effort positively and significantly influence domestic revenue; government expenditure and domestic debt show a negative and significant long-term relationship. In the short run, however, lagged government expenditure and domestic debt appear to have a positive effect. These results suggest that short-term fiscal injections can boost revenue, but unsustainable expenditure and borrowing weaken long-term fiscal health. The study concludes that a balanced and transparent fiscal strategy anchored on growth-friendly policies, debt sustainability, and efficient public spending is essential for strengthening Sierra Leone’s domestic revenue capacity.
THE DYNAMICS OF EXCHANGE RATES, INFLATION, AND TRADE BALANCE IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY (CASE STUDY OF SIERRA LEONE) Kamara, Ishmael; Widyawati, Diah
TRANSEKONOMIKA: AKUNTANSI, BISNIS DAN KEUANGAN Vol. 4 No. 5 (2024): September 2024
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/transekonomika.v4i5.727

Abstract

Sierra Leone experiences a persistent trade deficit problem. Currently, there is a vacuum in the literature employing recent data and suitable approaches to address the issue of non-stationarity and dynamic interaction between macroeconomic variables in influencing the trade deficit in Sierra Leone. This study examines the relationship between Sierra Leone's trade balance, inflation, and exchange rate using quarterly data from 2005 Q1 to 2023 Q3. The focus is on understanding how the exchange rate and inflation impact Sierra Leone's trade balance in both the short and long term. To achieve this, the study utilizes the VAR/VECM model to depict the dynamic interaction between the trade balance, exchange rate, and inflation. It also employs Granger Causality analysis to determine the most appropriate ordering among the macroeconomic variables in the model and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis to test the hypotheses regarding the trade balance response to exchange rate shocks and inflation. The empirical results confirm the existence of cointegration, indicating a long-term balance between the trade balance, exchange rate, inflation, and other macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth and interest rate differentials. Moreover, the dynamic prediction analysis using the IRF method supports the J-curve hypothesis in Sierra Leone and suggests that inflation can reduce the performance of the trade balance. These findings highlight the need for Sierra Leone to implement a comprehensive strategy to adjust the exchange rate and curb inflation to improve the trade balance and enhance external economic stability.
The impact of inflation on Sierra Leone’s current account balance Kamara, Ishmael; Gunawan, Indra; Hirawan, Fajar
Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah Vol. 13 No. 6 (2026): Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah
Publisher : Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22437/ppd.v13i6.43075

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationship between inflation and the current account balance (CAB) in Sierra Leone from 1980 to 2024, with a particular focus on both short-run and long-run effects. The objective is to determine the directional impact of inflation and other macroeconomic indicators on current account performance and to provide actionable insights for economic stabilization. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and Granger causality analysis, the study assesses both equilibrium and predictive relationships among inflation, the real exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI), GDP growth, real interest rates, and trade openness. The results indicate that, in the long run, the CAB improves by approximately 0.0867 percentage points for every one-percentage-point increase in inflation, consistent with the intertemporal current account framework. The findings also suggest feedback effects between inflation and the current account, though statistical significance varies across directions. Trade openness and FDI are found to exert negative long-run effects on the current account, while their lagged effects show positive adjustments. Exchange rate dynamics and interest rates are volatile, whereas economic growth contributes positively to the external balance. Furthermore, the results reveal that inflation Granger-causes GDP growth, real interest rates, and FDI, underscoring its broader macroeconomic influence. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of coordinated fiscal, monetary, and trade policies in maintaining external stability and macroeconomic balance in Sierra Leone.
Co-Authors Hirawan, Fajar Indra Gunawan Widyawati, Diah