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All Journal SAINSMAT SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Alimuddin, Ahmad Hilal
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Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Physics

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Modeling of Factors Affecting the Open Unemployment Rate in East Java Haryanto, Albertus Eka Putra; Zulfadhli, Muhammad; Alimuddin, Ahmad Hilal
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat142714042025

Abstract

One of the challenges faced in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in point eight is the high unemployment rate in several regions. East Java Province is one of the provinces with a relatively high Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) compared to the target set by the provincial government in 2021. In that year, East Java's TPT was recorded at 6.49%, exceeding the specified target of between 3.96% and 4.01%. In addition to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, several other factors are thought to have a significant influence on the East Java TPT. This study aims to model these factors using linear and nonparametric regression with a truncated spline approach to identify the best model. The data used in this study are secondary data from the Badan Pusat Statistika (BPS). The results showed that the best model based on the highest R² value and the lowest RMSE was nonparametric regression with a truncated spline. The variables of district/city minimum wage,Labor Force Participation Rate, and Human Development Index (HDI) have a significant effect on TPT in East Java, where this model is able to explain 91.51% of the variability in the model.
Modeling of Factors Affecting the Open Unemployment Rate in East Java Haryanto, Albertus Eka Putra; Zulfadhli, Muhammad; Alimuddin, Ahmad Hilal
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat142714042025

Abstract

One of the challenges faced in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in point eight is the high unemployment rate in several regions. East Java Province is one of the provinces with a relatively high Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) compared to the target set by the provincial government in 2021. In that year, East Java's TPT was recorded at 6.49%, exceeding the specified target of between 3.96% and 4.01%. In addition to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, several other factors are thought to have a significant influence on the East Java TPT. This study aims to model these factors using linear and nonparametric regression with a truncated spline approach to identify the best model. The data used in this study are secondary data from the Badan Pusat Statistika (BPS). The results showed that the best model based on the highest R² value and the lowest RMSE was nonparametric regression with a truncated spline. The variables of district/city minimum wage,Labor Force Participation Rate, and Human Development Index (HDI) have a significant effect on TPT in East Java, where this model is able to explain 91.51% of the variability in the model.
Co-Authors Haryanto, Albertus Eka Putra Muhammad Zulfadhli, Muhammad