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All Journal Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN) Industrika : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri
Ardana, Wahyu
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Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mechanical Engineering

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Analisis Akurasi Peramalan Pengisian Bahan Bakar Kapal X dengan Model Sarima Andrianti, Irma; Ardana, Wahyu
Industrika : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri Vol. 9 No. 4 (2025): Industrika: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik Universitas Tulang Bawang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37090/d4g2h952

Abstract

The energy industry, including PT Pertamina Hulu Kalimantan Timur (PHKT), faces serious challenges in managing the fuel supply of Ship X, which is vital for worker mobility, due to the high frequency of deliveries (3-4 times a month) which increases operational costs. This study aims to forecast the  refueling of Ship X using  the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and evaluate the accuracy. The accuracy evaluation was carried out by integrating the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) metrics. Secondary data on the weekly fuel consumption of Ship X from PT Pertamina Hulu Kalimantan Timur (PHKT) Penajam Supply Base (PSB) for the period January to September 2024 was used in this study. Based on the analysis, the SARIMA model (1,1,0)(0,1,1)6 was identified as a statistically significant model and suitable for forecasting. The forecast results for the next 13 weeks, starting from week 40, with an initial prediction of 1794.37 liters. The evaluation of the accuracy of the model resulted in an MAE of 143.66 liters, a MAD of 107 liters, and a MAPE of 8.33%. This accuracy evaluation  provides a deeper understanding of the model's performance, which contributes to more informed fuel inventory management and improved operational efficiency of Ship X. Keywords: Forecasting, Fuel, MAE, MAD, MAPE, Sarima
Forecasting Fuel Consumption Kapal X Menggunakan Metode Sarima Di Penajam Supply Base (PSB) Pertamina Hulu Kalimantan Timur Ardana, Wahyu; Andrianti, Irma
Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN) Vol. 8 No. 4 (2025): October
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/jutin.v8i4.38468

Abstract

The energy industry faces major challenges in fuel inventory management due to price and demand fluctuations. PT Pertamina Hulu Kalimantan Timur (PHKT) faces this issue in the operation of Ship X, the crucial transportation between Balikpapan and Penajam Supply Base (PSB). Uncertainty in fuel demand can disrupt worker mobility and increase operational costs due to the high frequency of deliveries. Therefore, forecasting fuel consumption is important for efficiency and smooth operation. The purpose of this research is to forecast the amount of fuel that will be used by Ship X. The method used is a quantitative approach by utilizing secondary data on fuel consumption for the period January to September 2024 from PSB PHKT. In forecasting efforts, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) (1,1,0)(0,1,1)6 model is used. The selection of this model is based on parameter significance and fulfillment of the white noise residual assumption after going through diagnostic tests. The results of the study provide a prediction of the fuel usage of Ship X in week 40 of 1794.37 liters.
Co-Authors Andrianti, Irma