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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)
Fitriyana, Gita
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Mathematics

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Interpolation of Fire Radiative Power in West Kalimantan using Ordinary Kriging Fitriyana, Gita; Imro'ah, Nurfitri; Huda, Nur'ainul Miftahul; Zuleha, Zuleha
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 9, No 4 (2025): October
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v9i4.32643

Abstract

Forest fires are recurring environmental disasters with severe ecological and economic impacts, particularly in regions like West Kalimantan. One of the key indicators used to measure fire intensity is Fire Radiative Power (FRP). Accurate spatial prediction of FRP is essential to support early warning systems and mitigation strategies. This study is a quantitative descriptive research that applies a geostatistical spatial analysis technique, namely Ordinary Kriging interpolation, to predict FRP values in West Kalimantan for July, August, and September 2024. The data were obtained from satellite imagery (VIIRS NOAA-20), including latitude, longitude, and FRP values. Prior to modeling, data were tested for normality and found to follow a normal distribution. The spherical semivariogram model yielded the best fit for July and August with RMSE values of 0.046 and 0.011, respectively, while the Gaussian model was optimal for September (RMSE = 0.007). The results show spatial variation in FRP distribution across different regencies each month, with the highest estimated FRP values recorded in Kapuas Hulu (July: 63.56), Melawi (August: 69.00), and Ketapang (September: 55.27). Most areas demonstrated low fire intensity, as shown by the dominance of green zones on the prediction maps. However, localized red-yellow zones indicate areas with high fire potential, which shifted monthly. This study contributes by demonstrating the application of Ordinary Kriging in forest fire intensity mapping and highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate semivariogram model to enhance predictive accuracy. The resulting FRP prediction maps can serve as a valuable tool for policy planning and targeted fire prevention efforts.
Interpolation of Fire Radiative Power Based on GSTAR Model Predictions with Queen Contiguity Weights Using Ordinary Kriging Fitriyana, Gita; Imro'ah, Nurfitri; Huda, Nur’ainul Miftahul
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 1 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i1.37462

Abstract

Forest fires are a persistent environmental issue in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, driven by both natural and human factors. Fire Radiative Power (FRP) serves as a vital indicator for assessing wildfire intensity and energy release. This study aims to model and predict the spatial temporal dynamics of FRP using the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive [GSTAR(1;1)] model combined with Ordinary Kriging interpolation. The dataset covers West Kalimantan from July 2024 to September 2025, comprising four attributes: observation date, longitude, latitude, and FRP value. Data filtering was applied from the national to provincial level, focusing on three regencies Sanggau, Sekadau, and Ketapang across 14 sub-districts represented by a 1.25×1.25 grid. The data consisted of 65 weekly observations, with 61 used for training and 4 for testing. The GSTAR(1;1) model with a spatial area-based framework achieved an optimal MAPE of 12.63% and satisfied the white noise assumption, indicating reliable performance. Predictions for October 2025 indicated relatively stable fire intensity, with a slight FRP decrease in Nanga Tayap and Sandai during the final week. Overall, the integrated GSTAR–Kriging framework effectively captured both temporal and spatial variations, supporting improved fire risk assessment and regional decision making for wildfire management in West Kalimantan.
Co-Authors Huda, Nur'ainul Miftahul Huda, Nur’ainul Miftahul Imro'ah, Nurfitri Zuleha, Zuleha