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All Journal Signifikan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Melati, Alexsandra Putri Sekar
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The Future of Health Expenditure in ASEAN Countries: A Forecasting Analysis with ARIMA Melati, Alexsandra Putri Sekar; Sihaloho, Estro Dariatno
Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025): Forthcoming Issue
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46420

Abstract

Research Originality: The primary contribution of this research is its novel analysis and forecasting of health expenditure in the ASEAN region, which has been previously underexamined by scholars. Research Objectives: This research forecasts per capita health expenditure across three ASEAN countries, broken down by government, private, and out-of-pocket sources. Research Methods: This study employs a time series ARIMA model approach using secondary data from the World Bank for the period 2000 to 2021 Empirical Results: The findings indicate that projections for all three countries significantly increase across all health expenditure categories. Singapore is expected to see a sharp surge in all health expenditure components. At the same time, Indonesia is forecasted to achieve the highest growth rate in percentage terms, but lags in nominal terms. Conversely, Malaysia is projected to experience moderate growth in health expenditure. Implications: This research underscores the financing disparities and the urgent need for health system reform.
Co-Authors Sihaloho, Estro Dariatno