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Modelling Claim Frequency with Spatial Effects for Accurate Insurance Premium Cost Calculations Ibrahim, Didymus; Mongare, Jared
Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Vol. 1 No. 2 (2024): Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (IdJAMS)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengembangan Matematika dan Statistika Terapan Indonesia, PT Anugrah Teknologi Kecerdasan Buatan PT Anugrah Teknologi Kecerdasan Buatan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.71385/idjams.v1i2.13

Abstract

This paper challenges the traditional assumption of independence between claim counts and amounts in non-life insurance. It explores the effectiveness of Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) in analyzing claim frequency data, a key component of accurate premium pricing. The proposed approach utilizes GLMs for both the marginal frequency and conditional severity of claims. Dependence between these factors is introduced by incorporating the number of claims as a covariate in the severity model. This strategy offers ease of implementation and interpretability, particularly when combined with Poisson counts and a log-link function. The resulting pure premium calculation considers the marginal mean frequency, a modified severity, and a dependence correction term. The paper further establishes the importance of spatial factors in claim frequency modelling for insurance businesses. It proposes a novel GLMM with a CAR (Conditional Autoregressive) model to account for these spatial effects. The impact of spatial factors on pure premium calculations is evaluated using simulated claim data.
Evaluating the Balance between Quality and Quantity in Secondary Education in Tanzania: Challenges and Opportunities Mduwile, Peter; Goswami, Dulumoni; Ibrahim, Didymus; Lufunga, Janeth; Baruah, Niharika
Journal of Education for Sustainable Development Studies Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Education for Sustainable Development Studies
Publisher : Scientia Publica Media

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70232/jesds.v2i2.43

Abstract

Tanzania has expanded secondary education access over the past two decades through initiatives like the Secondary Education Development Program and Free Education Policy. While these reforms have significantly increased enrollment, concerns about educational quality persist. This study investigates how rapid enrollment growth has affected the quality of secondary education in Tanzania, particularly focusing on disparities in learning outcomes, teacher distribution, and infrastructure. A mixed-methods design was employed, combining quantitative analysis of government statistics (2015–2023) with qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussions in both urban and rural schools. Quantitative data assessed trends in enrollment, teacher-pupil ratios, and academic performance, while qualitative insights explored experiences of students, teachers, and administrators. Enrollment rose by over 50% between 2015 and 2023. However, this expansion coincided with overcrowded classrooms, underqualified teachers, and limited resources. Teacher deployment and learning outcomes remained uneven across regions. Participants highlighted systemic challenges, including a lack of functional laboratories, insufficient materials, and poor infrastructure. Despite these issues, emerging opportunities include ICT integration, community engagement, donor support, and reforms in the Education and Training Policy. Tanzania’s focus on universal access must be matched by targeted efforts to enhance quality. Key recommendations include investing in teacher training, infrastructure development, equitable resource allocation, digital learning, and accountability mechanisms. Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 4 requires a strategic balance between quantity and quality to ensure inclusive, equitable, and transformative education for all.