Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Vol. 1 No. 2 (2024): Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (IdJAMS)

Modelling Claim Frequency with Spatial Effects for Accurate Insurance Premium Cost Calculations

Ibrahim, Didymus (Unknown)
Mongare, Jared (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Dec 2024

Abstract

This paper challenges the traditional assumption of independence between claim counts and amounts in non-life insurance. It explores the effectiveness of Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) in analyzing claim frequency data, a key component of accurate premium pricing. The proposed approach utilizes GLMs for both the marginal frequency and conditional severity of claims. Dependence between these factors is introduced by incorporating the number of claims as a covariate in the severity model. This strategy offers ease of implementation and interpretability, particularly when combined with Poisson counts and a log-link function. The resulting pure premium calculation considers the marginal mean frequency, a modified severity, and a dependence correction term. The paper further establishes the importance of spatial factors in claim frequency modelling for insurance businesses. It proposes a novel GLMM with a CAR (Conditional Autoregressive) model to account for these spatial effects. The impact of spatial factors on pure premium calculations is evaluated using simulated claim data.

Copyrights © 2024






Journal Info

Abbrev

jms

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Engineering Public Health

Description

The main aim of the Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (IdJAMS) is to publish refereed, well-written original research articles, and studies that describe the latest research and developments in the area of applied mathematics and statistics. This is a broad-based journal ...