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All Journal JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Prosiding Seminar Nasional CORISINDO
Aziza, Istin Fitriani
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Computer Science & IT Mathematics

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Prediksi Permintaan Reservasi Kamar Hotel Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Saputra, Habibi Yusup; Aziza, Istin Fitriani; Soraya, Siti
CORISINDO 2025 Vol. 1 (2025): Prosiding Seminar Nasional CORISINDO 2025
Publisher : CORISINDO 2025

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/corisindo.v1.5298

Abstract

 Hotel reservation demand forecasting is a crucial component in hotel management for operational optimization and profitability. Time series reservation data is often volatile and uncertain, thus requiring an adaptive forecasting model. This study objective is to implements the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) method to predict the number of weekly room reservations at a hotel in Gili Trawangan. Historical reservation data for 54 weeks from June 2024 to June 2025 is processed through three main stages: determining the universe of discourse, fuzzifying the data into seven fuzzy sets, and extracting knowledge to form Fuzzy Logical Relationship Groups (FLRG). The forecasting results are evaluated using actual data and show good model performance in capturing demand fluctuation patterns. The model accuracy measured by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) produces a value of 11.69%, indicating that FTS is an effective and promising method for forecasting hotel room demand with dynamic data characteristics.
Analysis of the Spatial Error Model with Queen Contiguity Matrix Weights on Dengue Fever Soraya, Siti; Aziza, Istin Fitriani; Arisandi, Rizwan; Verma, Kirti; Isasi, Widani Darma; Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 10, No 1 (2026): January
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v10i1.33477

Abstract

Dengue Fever is one of the deadly diseases caused by a rapidly spreading virus transmitted through the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This study focuses on the NTB region, which has different geographical characteristics and infrastructure challenges. The variables used in this study are: dengue fever incidence, population, hospitals, community health centers, poor residents, and floods. The aim of this study is to model the factors that influence the occurrence of dengue fever in NTB. The method used is the Spatial Error Model (SEM), which serves to analyze spatial data to observe spatial correlation in the error variables. The research results indicate that the Moran Index and the Lagrange Multiplier test confirm the existence of spatial dependence in the error aspects. Significant variables at the 5% level affecting dengue fever cases are population size, the number of hospitals, and the number of community health centers. These findings provide an important scientific contribution as they represent one of the early studies that specifically identify and model the spatial dependence patterns of dengue fever cases in West Nusa Tenggara using a spatial econometric approach, thereby enriching the literature on spatial epidemiology at the regional level. The findings indicate that population growth and disparities in healthcare facilities increase the risk of dengue fever. This implies that more equitable spatial planning of healthcare services, strengthening of primary care, population density control, and increased community participation in sanitation and regular mosquito breeding site eradication are necessary as part of an to reduce dengue fever cases in NTB.
Co-Authors Isasi, Widani Darma Rizwan Arisandi, Rizwan Saputra, Habibi Yusup Siti Soraya Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus Verma, Kirti