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All Journal El-Iqtishady International Journal for Advanced Research
Nathania Christy Sembiring
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The Influence of Inflation on Economic Growth in Indonesia During the 2016-2020 Period Nathania Christy Sembiring; Sinaga, Hottarida; Sirait, Respa Mellia
International Journal of Advanced Research Vol. 1 No. 6: April 2025
Publisher : Outline Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61730/eykxt458

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of inflation on Indonesia's economic growth during the 2016-2020 period. Inflation is a key macroeconomic indicator with complex effects on economic activity, both positive and negative. A quantitative method with a descriptive-analytical approach was employed, using secondary data from Statistics Indonesia and Bank Indonesia. A simple linear regression analysis revealed that inflation has a significant effect on economic growth, with a significance level of 0.039. The findings indicate that rising inflation, particularly during the Covid-19 pandemic, negatively impacted economic growth due to increased prices of essential goods, reduced purchasing power, and higher unemployment. However, inflation levels during the observed period remained within a normal range, offering opportunities to drive further economic growth. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers in managing inflation to support economic stability and sustainable growth.
PENGARUH INFLASI DAN KURS TERHADAP TINGKAT PERSENTASE PENDUDUK MISKIN MELALUI INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA (IPM) DI SUMATERA UTARA TAHUN 2001-2024 Nathania Christy Sembiring; Joko Suharianto; Ian Josepan Saragih; Hottarida Sinaga
El-Iqthisadi Vol 7 No 2 (2025): Desember
Publisher : Jurusan Hukum Ekonomi Syariah Fakultas Syariah dan Hukum Uin Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24252/el-iqthisady.v7i2.62194

Abstract

Abstrak Studi ini menggunakan IPM sebagai variabel mediasi untuk mengkaji pengaruh inflasi dan nilai tukar terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Data deret waktu BPS 2001–2024 digunakan. Baik efek langsung maupun tidak langsung antara variabel ditemukan menggunakan analisis jalur. Temuan menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar dan inflasi memiliki dampak besar pada IPM. Meskipun demikian, nilai tukar dan IPM memiliki dampak besar pada tingkat kemiskinan, sedangkan inflasi memiliki dampak langsung yang dapat diabaikan. IPM, nilai tukar, dan inflasi semuanya memiliki dampak besar pada tingkat kemiskinan Sumatera Utara pada saat yang bersamaan. Hasil ini memvalidasi bahwa hubungan antara kemiskinan dan variabel makroekonomi sebagian dimediasi oleh IPM. Oleh karena itu, untuk mengurangi kemiskinan dan mendorong pembangunan manusia di Sumatera Utara, pemerintah disarankan untuk menegakkan stabilitas ekonomi dan meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat, perawatan kesehatan, dan pendidikan. Kata kunci: Inflasi, Kurs, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, Kemiskinan   Abstract This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation and exchange rate on the percentage of poor population in North Sumatra Province through the Human Development Index (HDI) as a mediating variable. The data used are time series data from 2001 to 2024 obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The analytical method employed is path analysis, which examines both direct and indirect effects among variables. The results show that inflation and exchange rate significantly affect the HDI. However, the direct effect of inflation on poverty is not significant, while the exchange rate and HDI have a significant impact on poverty levels. Simultaneously, inflation, exchange rate, and HDI significantly influence the poverty rate in North Sumatra. These findings indicate that HDI acts as a partial mediating variable between macroeconomic variables and poverty. Therefore, the government should maintain economic stability and improve the quality of education, health, and community welfare to reduce poverty and strengthen human development in North Sumatra. Keywords: Inflation, Exchange Rate, Human Development Index, Poverty.
Co-Authors Hottarida Sinaga Ian Josepan Saragih Sinaga, Hottarida Sirait, Respa Mellia