Firman, Asmen Junaidi
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Peramalan Pembiayaan Modal Kerja pada Bank Syariah di Indonesia: Aplikasi Model ARIMA Firman, Asmen Junaidi; Binangkit, Intan Diane
SUSTAINABLE Vol 5 No 2 (2025): Volume 5 No 2, November 2025
Publisher : UMSurabaya Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30651/stb.v5i2.28401

Abstract

This study aims to forecast working capital financing for Islamic Commercial Banks (BUS) and Sharia Business Units (UUS) in Indonesia using the ARIMA model as a basis for strategic decision-making. The research object is the total working capital financing of BUS and UUS based on monthly data from January 2017 to March 2025. The research stages include descriptive statistical analysis, stationarity testing with Augmented Dickey-Fuller, identification of ACF/PACF patterns, parameter estimation and significance testing, residual validation, and selection of the best model based on AIC, SBC, and MSE criteria. The analysis results show the ARIMA(8,1,7) model as optimal with AIC 18.6304 and MSE 6,792,148, while residuals meet white noise and normality assumptions. The 12-month forecast (April 2025–March 2026) indicates an increasing financing trend from Rp130.3 trillion to Rp148.98 trillion, despite moderate fluctuations in some months. The discussion confirms that ARIMA captures historical dynamics and external volatility, enabling forecast integration into decision systems for fund allocation optimization and liquidity risk mitigation. In conclusion, ARIMA(8,1,7) proves accurate for predicting BUS-UUS working capital financing and supports Islamic banking management strategies in Indonesia.
Building a halal MSME incubator in a heritage district: A qualitative single-case study of the Kauman Solo halal culinary area Maramis, Muhamad Iqbal Haqiqi; Firman, Asmen Junaidi; Widiastuti, Tika; Mawardi, Imron; Soleh, Mochammad
Journal of Halal Science and Research Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): February
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/jhsr.v7i1.13447

Abstract

This study explores how the Kauman Solo Halal Culinary Area contributes to strengthening the halal ecosystem and improving the performance of MSMEs, as well as formulating an Islamic value-based incubation model. The approach used is qualitative phenomenological with a single case study design. Informants were selected purposively and through snowball sampling, including JPH regulators/authorities, area/community managers, MSME actors, and financial-philanthropy partners (Bank Syariah Indonesia as a distributor, Jamkrindo Syariah as a guarantor, and BAZNAS as a qardhul hasan supporter). Primary data were collected through semi-structured in-depth interviews (45–90 minutes in length), field observations, and document reviews; all informants provided informed consent and were anonymized. Data analysis followed the Miles & Huberman process (reduction–presentation–conclusion) with the help of NVivo 12 for thematic coding (open–axial) and node mapping. The validity of the findings was ensured through triangulation of sources and methods, limited member checking, and audit trails. The results show that: (i) the region encourages increased readiness for halal certification, digital adoption, and market access for MSMEs; (ii) the three-stage incubation model (pre-incubation–core–acceleration) effectively closes the capability gap; (iii) the region's collective financing scheme—a collaboration between BSI, Jamkrindo Syariah, and BAZNAS—accelerates inclusive capacity expansion. The study offers a conceptualization of the "Halal Heritage Hub" as a framework for replication in other regions, along with policy implications for strengthening the halal ecosystem. Keywords: Halal culinary area, Halal value chain, Islamic business model, Local economic development, MSME business incubation.