Syahrullah, Azmi Fawwaz
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Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs, dan Industri terhadap Penerimaan Pajak di Indonesia Syahrullah, Azmi Fawwaz
Media Akuntansi Perpajakan Vol 10, No 2 (2025): Media Akuntansi Perpajakan
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52447/map.v10i2.8953

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of the Industrial Production Index, inflation, and the rupiah exchange rate on tax revenue in Indonesia. The method used is multiple linear regression with classical assumption tests to ensure the feasibility of the model, supported by secondary time-series data processed through a quantitative approach. The results of the study show that the Industrial Production Index, inflation, and the rupiah exchange rate have a significant effect on tax revenue. Simultaneously, the three independent variables are proven to significantly influence tax revenue. The implications of this study highlight the importance of macroeconomic stability in supporting the optimization of state revenue, indicating that the government needs to maintain conducive industrial conditions and exchange rate stability. These findings may also serve as a reference for future research in developing more comprehensive tax revenue prediction models.  
The role of imports, exchange rates, and reserve stability in driving Indonesia’s export performance Syahrullah, Azmi Fawwaz; Effendi, Adang Djatnika; Sutanto, Herry
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15536

Abstract

Indonesia’s export performance is shaped by various macroeconomic factors that represent both the country’s production capabilities and broader external economic conditions. This study explores how exchange rates, imports, and foreign exchange reserves influence Indonesia’s export activities. In contrast to many earlier studies that examined these variables individually, this research brings them together in one empirical framework to better understand their joint impact on export performance. The analysis is based on annual time-series data from 1995 to 2024, sourced from the World Bank database. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to identify both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships among the variables. Prior to estimation, several econometric procedures are conducted, including unit root testing, optimal lag selection based on the Akaike Information Criterion, bounds testing for cointegration, and diagnostic tests to ensure model reliability. The empirical findings indicate that imports have a positive and statistically significant impact on Indonesia’s exports in both the short term and the long term. Meanwhile, the exchange rate does not appear to have a significant direct influence on export performance. Foreign exchange reserves, on the other hand, show a positive relationship with exports, although the statistical strength of this effect is relatively weaker. Overall, these results suggest that ensuring the availability of imported production inputs and maintaining macroeconomic stability are important factors in supporting sustainable export growth in Indonesia.