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All Journal Al-Fadilah: Islamic Economics Journal
Ahmad Khosrow Sharifi
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Religion Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Digital Financial Twins in Islamic Microfinance: Evidence from Conflict-Affected Rural Economies (2020–2025) Fayaz Gul Mazloum Yar; Ahmad Khosrow Sharifi
Al-Fadilah: Islamic Economics Journal Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Potential and Innovation in Islamic Economic
Publisher : Penerbit Hellow Pustaka

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61166/fadilah.v3i2.79

Abstract

Conflict‑affected rural microfinance faces data scarcity and repayment volatility, limiting sustainable outreach. No prior empirical study has evaluated Digital Financial Twin (DFT) analytics within Shariah‑compliant institutions under conflict conditions. We integrate cyber‑physical simulation with Islamic microfinance, offering the first large‑scale evidence of DFT impact on financial and poverty outcomes. We employ a quasi‑experimental design combining geospatial conflict data (ACLED), loan‑level records from five Islamic MFIs (N = 48,360 loans across 120 rural districts), and UNDP Multidimensional Poverty Index scores. Multivariate logistic regressions, structural equation modeling (SEM), and GIS mapping were implemented using R (v4.2.2) and lavaan (v0.6‑12). DFT deployment correlates with a 5.8 pp increase in on‑time repayment (OR = 1.27, 95% CI [1.18, 1.37], p < 0.001) and a 5.9 pp reduction in default rates (OR = 0.72, 95% CI [0.64, 0.81], p < 0.001). SEM indicates a significant moderating effect of DFT on conflict intensity (β = 0.29, p < 0.01). GIS heatmaps demonstrate sustained outreach in high‑conflict zones. DFT analytics enhance Shariah‑compliant microfinance performance and resilience in fragile settings, informing policy on digital infrastructure investment in conflict‑affected economies.
Co-Authors Fayaz Gul Mazloum Yar