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All Journal JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Usman, Rizal
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Environmental Science Social Sciences

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Model Regresi Multilevel Negative Binomial Pada Kasus Kronis Filariasis di Indonesia Usman, Rizal; Nasib, Salmun K.; Wungguli, Djihad; Abdussamad, Siti Nurmardia
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 6, No 2 (2025): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v6i2.31648

Abstract

Filariasis is a contagious disease caused by infection with the parasitic worm Filaria and transmitted through the bite of an infected mosquito. Analysis of the number of chronic filariasis cases in Indonesia often faces statistical problems in the form of overdispersion and excess zero. To overcome this, a Multilevel Negative Binomial Regression model is used which is able to handle data variance that is greater than the average as well as the number of zero values in the data. The results showed that the model was effective in overcoming overdispersion and excess zero problems. Based on the parameter significance test using the Wald test, environmental variables such as the presence of unprotected wells (X4) and household proximity to waste storage (X5) have a significant effect on the number of chronic filariasis cases. In contrast, socioeconomic variables such as percentage of male population (X1), productive age population (X2), proper sanitation (X3), percentage of poor population (X6), and Human Development Index (X7) did not show a significant effect. These findings confirm that environmental factors play an important role in the spread of chronic filariasis cases in Indonesia. 
Co-Authors Djihad Wungguli Salmun K. Nasib Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad