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All Journal Jurnal ULTIMATICS
Ariantika Putri Maharani
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering

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Application Of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt’s Method For Poverty Line Forecasting (Study Case: East Kalimantan Province) Ariantika Putri Maharani; Akhmad Irsyad; Muhammad Rivani Ibrahim
ULTIMATICS Vol 17 No 2 (2025): Ultimatics : Jurnal Teknik Informatika
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering and Informatics, Universitas Multimedia Nusantara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31937/ti.v17i2.4349

Abstract

Poverty is a multidimensional problem that remains a challenge in Indonesia. The poverty line is used as an indicator to determine whether someone is poor based on the average expenditure per capita per month. In East Kalimantan Province, the poverty line has increased from Rp796,193 in 2023 to Rp853,997 in 2024. This study aims to forecast the poverty line for the next ten periods using Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing method. This method was chosen because the historical data shows an increasing trend from 2011 to 2024. The forecasting results show that this method is effective with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 4.56%, and optimal parameters α = 0.98 and β = 0.01. The findings are expected to serve as a reference in decision-making regarding poverty alleviation policies in the future.
Co-Authors Ibrahim, Muhammad Rivani Irsyad, Akhmad