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Pemodelan Stokastik Inflasi Bulanan Kota di Sumatera Utara Menggunakan SARIMA dan Simulasi Monte Carlo Hutabarat, Felix John Pardamean; Simanullang, Paskah Abadi; Dly, Revidamurti; Panggabean, Suvriadi
Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Vol. 5 No. 4 (2025): Desember 2025
Publisher : Pendidikan Matematika FKIP Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/griya.v5i4.933

Abstract

Monthly inflation in North Sumatra exhibits high fluctuation, seasonality, and uncertainty (stochasticity), making it difficult for deterministic models to predict accurately. This study aims to analyze seasonal and stochastic patterns, build a SARIMA model, and apply Monte Carlo Simulation to generate probabilistic prediction ranges. This study uses a quantitative approach with BPS monthly inflation (month-to-month) data from January 2021–September 2025 for five cities in North Sumatra. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is used to capture seasonal patterns and trends, while Monte Carlo Simulation (5,000 paths) is applied to quantify prediction uncertainty by generating probabilistic distributions. The forecast results (Oct 2025–Dec 2026) indicate that Medan City is projected to face the highest inflationary pressure. However, model validation on 2024 test data showed limited performance, marked by negative R² values for all cities (ranging from -0.364 to -1.146). This negative R² finding highlights high uncertainty. This combined approach proves more informative than single-point predictions, as it explicitly presents the uncertainty range (visualized as a "fan 90%" band), offering a more comprehensive forecasting picture for policy considerations.
Sistem Keamanan Pintu Berbasis Computer Vision dengan Biometric Face Recognition dan Physical Tampering Detection Hutabarat, Felix John Pardamean; Kiswanto, Dedy; Simanullang, Paskah Abadi; Amanah, Fadilla
Jurnal Nasional Komputasi dan Teknologi Informasi (JNKTI) Vol 9, No 1 (2026): Februari 2026
Publisher : Program Studi Teknik Komputer, Fakultas Teknik. Universitas Serambi Mekkah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32672/jnkti.v9i1.10270

Abstract

Abstrak - Keamanan akses pintu pada lingkungan hunian dan kos membutuhkan sistem yang tidak hanya mampu memverifikasi identitas pengguna, tetapi juga responsif terhadap ancaman fisik terhadap perangkat. Penelitian ini mengusulkan dan merealisasikan S.I.G.H.T. (Secure Intelligent Gate Hardware Tamper-detection), sebuah sistem keamanan pintu berbasis computer vision yang menggabungkan biometric face recognition menggunakan algoritma Local Binary Patterns Histograms (LBPH) dengan physical tampering detection berbasis sensor getaran. Arsitektur sistem terdiri atas backend FastAPI, dashboard web berbasis React sebagai pusat pemantauan dan kontrol, agen kamera untuk pemrosesan citra pada perangkat edge, serta modul IoT gerbang yang mengendalikan kunci dan alarm secara real-time melalui antrian perintah terpusat. Metode pengembangan yang digunakan adalah pendekatan Research and Development (RD) dengan model Waterfall yang mencakup analisis kebutuhan, perancangan, implementasi, dan pengujian terstruktur. Validasi fungsional dilakukan menggunakan black box testing pada skenario utama, seperti otentikasi wajah, pengelolaan data penghuni, respons sensor getaran, dan kontrol aktuator pintu serta alarm. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan seluruh skenario berjalan sesuai harapan dengan status “Lulus”, sehingga S.I.G.H.T. dinilai layak sebagai prototipe solusi keamanan pintu berlapis yang adaptif dan berpotensi dikembangkan lebih lanjut pada skala implementasi yang lebih luas.Kata kunci : Computer vision; Deteksi tampering fisik; Internet of Things; LBPH; Sistem keamanan pintu; Abstract - Door access security in residential and boarding environments requires a system that not only verifies user identity, but also responds to physical threats directed at the device. This study proposes and implements S.I.G.H.T. (Secure Intelligent Gate Hardware Tamper-detection), a computer-vision-based door security system that combines biometric face recognition using the Local Binary Patterns Histograms (LBPH) algorithm with physical tampering detection using a vibration sensor. The system architecture consists of a FastAPI backend, a React-based web dashboard as the central monitoring and control interface, a camera agent for image processing on edge devices, and an IoT gate module that controls the lock and alarm in real time through a centralized command queue. The development process follows a Research and Development (RD) approach with the Waterfall model, covering requirements analysis, system design, implementation, and structured testing stages. Functional validation is carried out using black box testing on key scenarios such as face authentication, resident data management, vibration sensor response, and actuator control for the door and alarm. The results show that all scenarios meet the expected outcomes with a “Pass” status, indicating that S.I.G.H.T. is feasible as a layered and adaptive door security prototype that can be further extended to broader deployment contexts.Keywords: Computer vision; Door security system; Internet of Things; LBPH; Physical tampering detection;