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Pemodelan Stokastik Inflasi Bulanan Kota di Sumatera Utara Menggunakan SARIMA dan Simulasi Monte Carlo Hutabarat, Felix John Pardamean; Simanullang, Paskah Abadi; Dly, Revidamurti; Panggabean, Suvriadi
Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Vol. 5 No. 4 (2025): Desember 2025
Publisher : Pendidikan Matematika FKIP Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/griya.v5i4.933

Abstract

Monthly inflation in North Sumatra exhibits high fluctuation, seasonality, and uncertainty (stochasticity), making it difficult for deterministic models to predict accurately. This study aims to analyze seasonal and stochastic patterns, build a SARIMA model, and apply Monte Carlo Simulation to generate probabilistic prediction ranges. This study uses a quantitative approach with BPS monthly inflation (month-to-month) data from January 2021–September 2025 for five cities in North Sumatra. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is used to capture seasonal patterns and trends, while Monte Carlo Simulation (5,000 paths) is applied to quantify prediction uncertainty by generating probabilistic distributions. The forecast results (Oct 2025–Dec 2026) indicate that Medan City is projected to face the highest inflationary pressure. However, model validation on 2024 test data showed limited performance, marked by negative R² values for all cities (ranging from -0.364 to -1.146). This negative R² finding highlights high uncertainty. This combined approach proves more informative than single-point predictions, as it explicitly presents the uncertainty range (visualized as a "fan 90%" band), offering a more comprehensive forecasting picture for policy considerations.
Rancang Bangun Sistem Login Berbasis Zero Trust untuk Keamanan Akses Dashboard Karyawan Hutabarat, Felix John Pardamean; Kiswanto, Dedy; Simanullang, Paskah Abadi; Siregar, Ririn Amelia BR
Jurnal Nasional Komputasi dan Teknologi Informasi (JNKTI) Vol 8, No 6 (2025): Desember 2025
Publisher : Program Studi Teknik Komputer, Fakultas Teknik. Universitas Serambi Mekkah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32672/jnkti.v8i6.9925

Abstract

Abstrak - Perkembangan teknologi informasi menuntut sistem keamanan yang adaptif terhadap ancaman siber modern. Model keamanan tradisional berbasis perimeter sudah tidak efektif, sehingga diperlukan pendekatan baru seperti Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA) dengan prinsip never trust, always verify. Penelitian ini bertujuan merancang dan membangun sistem login berbasis Zero Trust untuk mengamankan akses Dashboard Karyawan menggunakan bahasa pemrograman PHP dan basis data MySQL. Sistem ini mengintegrasikan autentikasi multi-faktor (OTP email), validasi eksplisit di setiap tahap login, pembatasan hak akses (least privilege), serta mekanisme session hardening seperti rotasi session ID, pengaturan cookie aman (Secure, HttpOnly, SameSite), timeout, dan lockout policy. Pengujian dilakukan melalui metode black box, uji integrasi, dan uji keamanan dengan hasil bahwa sistem mampu menolak akses tanpa autentikasi sah, mencegah reuse OTP, serta mencatat seluruh aktivitas keamanan secara real-time dalam log terstruktur. Implementasi ini terbukti meningkatkan keamanan identitas pengguna, melindungi data sensitif, serta menurunkan risiko penyalahgunaan kredensial dan serangan brute-force. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan prinsip ZTA dapat diimplementasikan secara efektif pada lingkungan sistem web berskala menengah tanpa mengorbankan kenyamanan pengguna.Kata kunci : Zero Trust Architecture; Autentikasi Multi-Faktor; Dashboard Karyawan; Keamanan Data; Sistem Login; Abstract - The rapid development of information technology requires security systems that can adapt to modern cyber threats. Traditional perimeter-based security models are no longer effective, necessitating a new approach such as the Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA), which operates on the principle of never trust, always verify. This study aims to design and develop a Zero Trust-based login system to secure employee dashboard access using PHP and MySQL technologies. The system integrates multi-factor authentication (OTP via email), explicit verification at every login stage, least privilege access control, and session hardening mechanisms such as session ID rotation, secure cookie configuration (Secure, HttpOnly, SameSite), timeout, and lockout policies. Testing through black-box, integration, and security tests showed that the system effectively denies unauthorized access, prevents OTP reuse, and records all security-related activities in a real-time structured log. The implementation enhances user identity protection, safeguards sensitive data, and reduces risks of credential misuse and brute-force attacks. The results indicate that the Zero Trust approach can be effectively implemented in mid-scale web systems without sacrificing usability.Keywords: Zero Trust Architecture; Multi-Factor Authentication; Employee Dashboard; Data Security; Login System;