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All Journal Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS
Ihsan, Nur Faqih
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Peramalan Jumlah Wisatawan Mancanegara yang Datang ke Bali Tahun 2025 Menggunakan SARIMAX dan Data Google Trends Ayuningrum, Adinda Safira Santoso; Sari, Nindy Candra Ayu Puspa; Ihsan, Nur Faqih; -, Nasrudin
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2472

Abstract

Bali is a tourist destination that is in demand by foreign tourists, which continues to increase every year, so the government and local communities need strategies or policies that can be taken so that this becomes an advantage. There is a gap in the data available by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) as the data provider, so Google Trends is used to fill the gap. Tourist projections rely heavily on historical data sourced from conventional statistical reports, which, although they have a high level of accuracy, are often accompanied by significant time lags and are less responsive to dynamic changes in tourist behavior. This research aims to provide more accurate and responsive predictions by considering exogenous variables in the form of GTI with the keywords "Bali", "Bali Hotel", "Bali `Flight", and "Bali Destination". The best model selected was SARIMAX(2,0,0)(2,1,0)12, with RMSE and sMAPE of 5.994 and 0.845. The number of foreign tourists coming to Bali is estimated to reach its peak in August 2025 at 641,553 people.
Spatial Analysis of Pneumonia in Toddlers on Sumatra Island Using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression Lumban Gaol, Ruth Natasya Sepbrina Br; Potenza, Maura Bintang; Ihsan, Nur Faqih; Pratama, Galang Ali Fazral; Berliana, Sarni Maniar
Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics Vol. 2025 No. 1 (2025): Proceedings of 2025 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2025i1.500

Abstract

Pneumonia remains a leading cause of mortality among toddlers (aged 1 to less than 5 years) in Indonesia, with notable spatial disparities across Sumatra Island. This study examines factors influencing pneumonia incidence in toddlers using a Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) model to capture local variations in the effects of community health centers, complete basic immunization coverage, exclusive breastfeeding rates, and low birth weight (LBW) prevalence. Analyzing 2022 cross-sectional data from 154 districts/cities on Sumatra, the global Poisson regression model confirmed all predictors as statistically significant at the 5% level. The GWPR model with a fixed Gaussian kernel outperformed the global model, revealing five regional clusters with distinct combinations of significant variables. The dominant cluster (140 locations) showed significant effects from all predictors, while smaller clusters (14 locations) highlighted localized patterns, such as reliance on immunization and breastfeeding in rural areas like Rejang Lebong. These findings underscore the need for tailored interventions to address regional disparities in toddler pneumonia.
Co-Authors Ayuningrum, Adinda Safira Santoso Lumban Gaol, Ruth Natasya Sepbrina Br Nasrudin - Potenza, Maura Bintang Pratama, Galang Ali Fazral Sari, Nindy Candra Ayu Puspa Sarni Maniar Berliana, Sarni Maniar