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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Sari, Nindy Candra Ayu Puspa
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Peramalan Jumlah Wisatawan Mancanegara yang Datang ke Bali Tahun 2025 Menggunakan SARIMAX dan Data Google Trends Ayuningrum, Adinda Safira Santoso; Sari, Nindy Candra Ayu Puspa; Ihsan, Nur Faqih; -, Nasrudin
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2472

Abstract

Bali is a tourist destination that is in demand by foreign tourists, which continues to increase every year, so the government and local communities need strategies or policies that can be taken so that this becomes an advantage. There is a gap in the data available by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) as the data provider, so Google Trends is used to fill the gap. Tourist projections rely heavily on historical data sourced from conventional statistical reports, which, although they have a high level of accuracy, are often accompanied by significant time lags and are less responsive to dynamic changes in tourist behavior. This research aims to provide more accurate and responsive predictions by considering exogenous variables in the form of GTI with the keywords "Bali", "Bali Hotel", "Bali `Flight", and "Bali Destination". The best model selected was SARIMAX(2,0,0)(2,1,0)12, with RMSE and sMAPE of 5.994 and 0.845. The number of foreign tourists coming to Bali is estimated to reach its peak in August 2025 at 641,553 people.
Who gains most from fuel subsidies and manufacturing sector strengthening? Evidence from Indonesia’s social accounting matrix Gaol, Ruth Natasya Sepbrina Br Lumban; Sari, Nindy Candra Ayu Puspa; Hariaddin, Muhammad; Kartiasih, Fitri; Monika, Anugerah Karta; Retnaningsih, Retnaningsih; Wahyuni, Ribut Nurul Tri
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 27 No. 2: October 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v27i2.29193

Abstract

This study analyses the distributional impacts of fuel subsidies and manufacturing-sector strengthening on household income and sectoral output in Indonesia. Using Indonesia’s 2022 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), the study applies multiplier decomposition and policy simulation to trace how these policies transmit income effects across household income groups and economic sectors. The results show that high-income households received the largest nominal income gains, amounting to IDR 654.78 trillion, while low-income households experienced the highest percentage income growth, at 3.99%. The manufacturing sector recorded the highest global multiplier values across all channels, including income creation (1.47), institutions (4.88), the production sector (10.58), and commodities (9.87), confirming its role as a key driver of economic activity through strong backward and forward linkages. However, the distribution of benefits across household groups remained structurally uneven. High-income households consistently recorded higher open-loop and closed-loop multipliers than low-income households, reflecting their greater capacity to capture, circulate, and reinvest the effects of fiscal injections. These findings suggest that fuel subsidies and manufacturing-sector strengthening generate broadly positive but unevenly distributed economic effects: proportionally pro-poor but nominally pro-rich. Tighter subsidy targeting, combined with continued investment in inclusive manufacturing linkages, is essential to ensure that these policies deliver more equitable and broad-based income growth across household groups in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Ayuningrum, Adinda Safira Santoso Fitri Kartiasih Gaol, Ruth Natasya Sepbrina Br Lumban Hariaddin, Muhammad Ihsan, Nur Faqih Monika, Anugerah Karta Nasrudin - Retnaningsih Retnaningsih Wahyuni, Ribut Nurul Tri