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All Journal INCODING: Journal of Informatics and Computer Science Engineering
Lubis, M. Revano Ananda
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Computer Science & IT

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Prediksi Penjualan Produk Makanan dan Minuman Ringan pada PT. Sinar Niaga Sejahtera Menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters Berbasis Website Lubis, M. Revano Ananda; Taufik, Insan; Al Idrus, Said Iskandar; Arnita, Arnita; Syahputra, Hermawan
INCODING: Journal of Informatics and Computer Science Engineering Vol 5, No 2 (2025): INCODING OKTOBER
Publisher : Mahesa Research Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34007/incoding.v5i2.1024

Abstract

PT. Sinar Niaga Sejahtera is a food and beverage distribution company that still relies on conventional methods to determine stock levels, often facing inventory management challenges due to fluctuations in market demand. This study aims to predict sales of the 15 best-selling products at the Tebing Tinggi branch using the Holt-Winters method, based on a website that provides historical sales data from January 2021 to December 2024. The research stages include problem identification, data collection, application of the Holt-Winters method, model evaluation using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and implementation of a website-based system. The results of the study on one product, Garuda Atom Original, show optimal parameters of α = 0.1, β = 0, and γ = 0.8 with an MAPE value of 5,703115%, which is classified as very good. The implementation of a website-based sales prediction system makes it easier for administrators to manage product data, record sales data, and obtain prediction results in the form of informative graphs and tables, thereby helping the company reduce the risk of overstocking or understocking and supporting more effective data-driven decision-making.
Co-Authors Arnita Arnita Hermawan Syahputra Insan Taufik Said . Iskandar