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All Journal Jurnal Public Policy AKADEMIK: Jurnal Mahasiswa Ekonomi & Bisnis Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi
Mualim, Wildan Maulana Assani
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Asosiasi antara Intensitas Alokasi Dana Desa dengan Ketimpangan Pendapatan dan Akses Air Bersih (SDG 6.1) Di Indonesia: Aplikasi Continuous Difference-In-Differences (2015-2022) Mualim, Wildan Maulana Assani; Arrasya, Adhimas Krisnaya; Fachriansyah, Muhammad; Devanta, Muhammad Atha; Romarina, Arina
AKADEMIK: Jurnal Mahasiswa Ekonomi & Bisnis Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): AKADEMIK: Jurnal Mahasiswa Ekonomi & Bisnis
Publisher : Perhimpunan Sarjana Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37481/jmeb.v6i1.1712

Abstract

Income inequality and unequal access to safe drinking water remain persistent challenges in Indonesia’s rural development agenda, despite substantial fiscal transfers through the Village Fund Program since 2015. This study aims to examine how variations in Village Fund allocation intensity influence income inequality and access to safe drinking water (SDG 6.1) across 514 districts from 2015 to 2022. Using a continuous difference-in-differences framework, the analysis integrates panel data from the Ministry of Villages, the Central Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank, while controlling for demographic, fiscal, and policy heterogeneity. The findings indicate that a one-standard-deviation increase in per-capita Village Fund allocation is associated with a 0.015-point reduction in the Gini coefficient and a 0.26-percentage-point increase in access to safe drinking water. Although the magnitudes are modest, the effects are statistically significant and stronger in regions with higher institutional capacity. These results highlight the need for improved targeting, institutional strengthening, and cross-sectoral coordination to enhance the Village Fund’s contribution toward inclusive and sustainable development.
Monetary Policy Transmission and Economic Growth in Indonesia: An Error Correction Model Analysis, 2000-2023 Firdaus, Farhan; Napitupulu, Nicholas Agustinus; Farhan, Muhammad; Mualim, Wildan Maulana Assani; Romarina, Arina
AKADEMIK: Jurnal Mahasiswa Ekonomi & Bisnis Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): AKADEMIK: Jurnal Mahasiswa Ekonomi & Bisnis
Publisher : Perhimpunan Sarjana Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37481/jmeb.v6i1.1799

Abstract

Indonesia’s economic performance over the past two decades has been shaped by persistent monetary fluctuations, particularly in inflation, policy interest rates, and the Rupiah exchange rate. These dynamics have contributed to recurring volatility in output and created challenges for maintaining stable and inclusive growth. This study aims to examine both the short-run and long-run effects of key monetary variables inflation, the BI policy rate, and the exchange rate on Indonesia’s economic growth during 2000-2023. Using annual macroeconomic data from BPS and Bank Indonesia, the analysis employs an Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture long-term equilibrium relationships and to identify adjustment patterns following short-term shocks. The results indicate a stable long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. Inflation and the policy rate exert significant negative effects on economic growth, with their long-run impacts being stronger than their short-run influences. In contrast, Rupiah depreciation shows a modest but positive long-run association with growth, reflecting the role of external competitiveness. The error-correction term demonstrates a meaningful and gradual adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, suggesting that deviations from stability are corrected over time. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of maintaining credible price stability, calibrating interest-rate decisions carefully, and managing exchange-rate movements to support sustainable economic expansion. The study underscores that consistent and coordinated monetary policy remains essential for strengthening Indonesia’s long-term growth resilience.
Determinants of Regional Economic Growth in Java Island: an Analysis of Capital Expenditure, General Allocation Funds, and Labor Using a Fixed Effect Model (2020–2024) Ramadhan, Muhammad Daffarezel; Ahmad, Rifat; Mualim, Wildan Maulana Assani; Kayame, Markus; Romarina, Arina
EKOMA : Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi Vol. 5 No. 2: Januari 2026
Publisher : CV. Ulil Albab Corp

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56799/ekoma.v5i2.13522

Abstract

This study examines the impact of regional capital expenditure, General Allocation Funds (DAU), and labor on real per capita Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth across 118 regencies and cities in Java Island from 2020 to 2024. Using a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with clustered robust standard errors, the balanced panel dataset includes 590 observations from six provinces: Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta Special Region, and East Java. The findings show that capital expenditure per capita has a significant positive elasticity of 0.247 (p < 0.001), increasing to a cumulative 0.297 when including a one-year lag, indicating sustained effects of public investment. DAU per capita exhibits a positive but statistically insignificant elasticity of 0.089 (p = 0.145), suggesting potential flypaper effects or indirect influence through capital spending. Labor emerges as the strongest driver of growth, with an elasticity of 0.654 (p < 0.001), which is 2.65 times larger than the impact of capital expenditure. Diagnostic tests validate the model, showing corrected heteroskedasticity, marginal autocorrelation, low multicollinearity (maximum VIF = 3.45), and approximately normal residuals. The results highlight that while public infrastructure investment remains important, a skilled and productive labor force is the most critical determinant of regional growth. Policy recommendations include increasing central government allocations for productive infrastructure, enhancing local government human capital development and capital spending quality, and adopting multi-year evaluation frameworks to capture long-term infrastructure benefits. Future research should explore DAU mediation pathways and spatial spillover effects across jurisdictions.
Integration of Change Theory and Evidence-Based Policies for Equitable Welfare in Mountainous Papua, Indonesia Meiyenti, Ira; Sudrajat, Ihwan; Yahya, Afif Syarifudin; Mualim, Wildan Maulana Assani; Bulan, Nur Sari
Journal Public Policy Vol 12, No 1 (2026): January
Publisher : Universitas Teuku Umar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35308/jpp.v12i1.13095

Abstract

This research aims to integrate population administration projections with the Theory of Change (ToC) and Evidence-Based Policy (EBP) frameworks to strengthen policy formulation for the equitable distribution of welfare across districts in Mountainous Papua Province. The research used mixed methods with a sequential explanatory design. In the quantitative phase, population, Human Development Index (HDI), and district-level education indicators are projected for the period 2025–2045 using arithmetic and exponential methods, and the results are then compared across eight districts. In the qualitative phase, the projection findings were interpreted to assess the feasibility of policy assumptions, identify intervention needs, and formulate evaluation mechanisms in the spatial context of Mountainous Papua, using ToC as a prospective analytical tool. The results showed variations in trajectories across districts and misalignments between population growth and HDI increases: Yahukimo is projected to have the largest population but the slowest increase in HDI, whereas Jayawijaya and Central Mamberamo show a stronger upward trend in HDI. Education projections indicate uneven progress and declining participation in vocational education, which contributes to the missing middle skill gap. These findings confirm the need to differentiate district-profile-based interventions and to strengthen monitoring as a policy feedback mechanism. It was concluded that equitable distribution of welfare in Mountainous Papua requires predictive planning and data-driven adaptive governance, with ToC–EBP as a framework to test causal logic, target interventions, and strengthen policy evaluation.
Co-Authors Ahmad, Rifat Arina Romarina, Arina Arrasya, Adhimas Krisnaya Bulan, Nur Sari Devanta, Muhammad Atha Fachriansyah, Muhammad Farhan Firdaus, Farhan Ira Meiyenti Kayame, Markus Muhammad Farhan Napitupulu, Nicholas Agustinus Ramadhan, Muhammad Daffarezel Sudrajat, Ihwan Yahya, Afif Syarifudin