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A HYBRID MODEL FOR STOCK PORTFOLIO SELECTION: MEAN-VALUE-AT-RISK WITH ANT COLONY OPTIMIZATION Arief Surya Lesmana; Hadi Satria Ganefi; Dadan Darmawan Muttaqien
INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Indonesian Journal Of Business And Economics
Publisher : Universitas Kuningan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25134/a3r24789

Abstract

The main problem in portfolio selection and management is determining an optimal risk-return balance. Investors strive to obtain maximum return while keeping the level of risk, but such a balance is hard to reach. The objective of this paper is to optimize stock portfolio formation using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) for stock selection and the Mean-Value-at-Risk (VaR) model for portfolio optimization. By simulating risk aversion coefficients, the cluster of four stocks was computed by the ACO algorithm with asset allocation proportions. The study found a negative relationship existing between risk aversion and VaR or the expected return, while between VaR and expected return, exists a positive correlation. The optimum portfolio for a risk aversion of 3.6 had an expected return of 4.38% and VaR of 9.27% with a ratio of 47.25%. The detailed composition includes 26.61% BRIS, 24.42% ELSA, 46.16% PGAS, and 2.83% TLKM. It shows the efficiency of the ACO algorithm in stock selection and that the investment is acceptable to suit the individual’s risk preference. Results from this study have significant implications for portfolio management in that it provides the necessary guide to construct an optimum portfolio that is balanced according to investor profiles.
OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION MAXIMIZING INVESTOR UTILITY: A STUDY OF BBRI AND WIKA STOCKS Nur Afifah Az-Zahra; Muhammad Zaqi Amali; Arief Surya Lesmana; Dadan Darmawan Muttaqien
INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Indonesian Journal Of Business And Economics
Publisher : Universitas Kuningan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25134/fgp8v013

Abstract

This study examines optimal portfolio construction within the context of the Indonesian capital market, focusing on an investor utility approach—specifically regarding BBRI and WIKA stocks. In an investment environment characterized by the risk-return trade-off, a utility-based approach is essential for explicitly capturing investor risk preferences. Consequently, this study aims to determine the optimal portfolio composition that maximizes investor utility, accounting for a specific level of risk aversion. The study employs a mean-variance theoretical framework extended by a quadratic utility function, with investor preferences represented by a risk aversion coefficient of 2.5. Stock return data are used to calculate expected returns and portfolio risk, as well as to determine optimal weights through a utility optimization process. The analysis reveals that the optimal portfolio is dominated by BBRI stock, comprising 98.28% of the portfolio, while WIKA stock accounts for only 1.72%. This combination yields an expected return of 0.43% and a risk level of 7.81%. The maximum utility value obtained is -0.0034. Although this utility value is negative, it remains theoretically valid; the utility function used is relative in nature and heavily influenced by the magnitude of risk and the investor's level of risk aversion during the optimization process. These findings indicate that, under certain conditions, a portfolio dominated by low-risk assets is preferred by investors with high risk aversion, even if it results in an absolute negative utility value. Thus, the study underscores the importance of considering investor risk preferences in investment decision-making and demonstrates that a utility value need not be positive to reflect an optimal investment decision.