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All Journal Equilibrium DeReMa (Development Research of Management) Jurnal Manajemen Empowerment : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Riset Ekonomi dan Bisnis Neraca Keuangan : Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi dan Keuangan Abdi Dosen : Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat Community Development Journal: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Ranah Publik Indonesia Kontemporer (Rapik) Yudishtira Journal : Indonesian Journal of Finance and Strategy Inside Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan Lamahu: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Terintegrasi Worksheet : Jurnal Akuntansi Kapas: Kumpulan Artikel Pengabdian Masyarakat Pena Dimas: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Inovasi Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat (IJPM) Masyarakat: Jurnal Pengabdian
Arief Surya Lesmana
Universitas Kuningan
Religion Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Public Health Social Sciences Other

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IDENTIFIKASI BULL AND BEAR MARKET DI PASAR MODAL SYARIAH INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN MARKOV-SWITCHING [IDENTIFICATION OF THE BULL AND BEAR MARKET IN THE INDONESIAN SHARIA CAPITAL MARKET: THE MARKOV-SWITCHING APPROACH] Arief Surya Lesmana
DeReMa (Development Research of Management): Jurnal Manajemen Vol 18, No 1 (2023): May
Publisher : Universitas Pelita Harapan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19166/derema.v18i1.6643

Abstract

The development of the Indonesian Islamic capital market cannot be separated from the bullish and bearish phenomena. Bullish and bearish conditions need special attention because they will affect investors’ decisions in buying, holding, or selling shares. This study aims to identify bullish and bearish conditions in the Indonesian Islamic capital market based on ISSI and JII data from January 2012 to December 2022. This study uses a quantitative approach with the Markov-Switching model technique. The result shows that in bullish conditions, ISSI can provide a return of 1.21% with a risk of 0.02%, while in bearish conditions ISSI can provide a return of -1.49% with a risk of 0.12%. Identification results on the ISSI data show that there were 101 bullish months with an expected duration of 9.5 months and 31 bearish months with an expected duration of 4.02 months. In addition, in bullish conditions, JII is able to provide a return of 0.17% with a risk of 0.02%, while in bearish conditions, JII can provide a return of -1.65% with a risk of 0.13%. Identification results on the JII data show that there were 90 bullish months with an expected duration of 5.93 months and 42 bearish months with an expected duration of 3.98 months.Abstrak dalam Bahasa Indonesia. Perkembangan pasar modal syariah Indonesia tidak terlepas dari fenomena bullish dan bearish. Kondisi bullish dan bearish perlu mendapat perhatian khusus karena dapat mempengaruhi keputusan investor dalam pembelian, penahanan, atau penjualan saham. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi kondisi bullish dan bearish di pasar modal syariah Indonesia berdasarkan data ISSI dan JII periode Januari 2012 hingga Desember 2022. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan Markov-Switching Model. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada kondisi bullish ISSI dapat memberikan tingkat pengembalian 1,21% dengan risiko 0,02%, sedangkan pada kondisi bearish ISSI dapat memberikan tingkat pengembalian -1,49% dengan risiko 0,12%. Pada data ISSI ditemukan 101 bulan bullish dengan rata-rata durasi 9,5 bulan dan 31 bulan bearish dengan rata-rata durasi 4,02 bulan. Selain itu pada kondisi bullish JII mampu memberikan tingkat pengembalian 0,17% dengan risiko 0,02%, sedangkan pada kondisi bearish, JII mampu memberikan tingkat pengembalian -1,65% dengan risiko 0,13%. Pada data JII ditemukan 90 bulan bullish dengan rata-rata durasi 5,93 bulan dan 42 bulan bearish dengan rata-rata durasi 3,98 bulan.
STOCK PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION IN BULLISH AND BEARISH CONDITIONS USING THE BLACK-LITTERMAN MODEL Herma Wiharno; Arief Surya Lesmana; Yasir Maulana; Munir Nur Komarudin
Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan Vol. 25 No. 2 (2023): SEPTEMBER 2023
Publisher : Management Study Program, Faculty of Business and Economics, Petra Christian University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.9744/jmk.25.2.92-104

Abstract

Bullish and bearish phenomena characterize the development of the capital market. Therefore, this study aimed to identify and analyze bullish and bearish conditions in the Indonesian capital market to formulate an optimal portfolio. The sample consisted of 20 selected companies based on their substantial market capitali- zation. The results showed that from January 2011 to December 2020, the capital market experienced 77 bullish and 43 bearish months. The transition probability from bullish to bearish and bearish to bullish state was 15.67% and 56.14%. Furthermore, employing the Markov-switching model for determining market conditions and using the Black-Litterman model for portfolio construction proved advantageous for investors' financial forecasting techniques and their potential to generate valuable insights to create a well-informed portfolio.
Literasi Keuangan Siswa Pesantren Khusus Terjemah Al-Qur’an Islam Tarbiyatul Banin Kabupaten Cirebon Hadi Satria Ganefi; Arief Surya Lesmana; Faisal Raihimi
Inovasi Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol 1 No 2 (2023): IJPM - Agustus 2023
Publisher : CV Firmos

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54082/ijpm.133

Abstract

Pengetahuan keuangan merupakan pondasi bagi individu dalam mengambil keputusan keuangan guna mencapai kehidupan yang lebih baik. Edukasi literasi keuangan perlu diterapkan sejak dini, hal ini karena usia efektif untuk edukasi literasi keuangan adalah saat mulai bersekolah. Pengetahuan keuangan akan diterapkan pada kehidupan memasuki usia dewasa. Pengenalan literasi keuangan pada kalangan generasi muda akan mencerminkan perilaku keuangan yang dapat mempengaruhi tingkat kesejahteraan di masa depan. Siswa pelajar pesantren Terjemahan Al-Qur’an Tarbiyatul Banin merupakan salah satu generasi penerus bangsa. Berdasarkan pengamatan awal yang dilakukan diketahui bahwa sebagian besar siswa di pendidikan ini masih memiliki pengetahuan yang sangat minim terhadap pemahaman keuangan. Oleh karena itu pengabdian ini dilakukan oleh tim dari FEB universitas kuningan dengan tujuan untuk menciptakan generasi milenial yang melek dan bijak dalam memanfaatkan uang sebagi alat mencapai kesejahteraan. Kegiatan pengabdian selama 3 hari tanggal 1-3 juni 2023 berjalan lancar serta menunjukkan hasil positif bahwa siswa memiliki pemahaman yang terliterasi dalam mengelola uangnya mulai dari merencanakan tujuan dan kebutuhan, mengenali jenis simpanan yang aman dan mampu mengambil keputusan yang tepat dalam mencapai sasaran tujuannya.
Determinant efficiency of the banking industry in Indonesia Ganefi, Hadi Satria; Syafrudin, Oding; Lesmana, Arief Surya
Jurnal Riset Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol 17, No 2 (2024): AGUSTUS
Publisher : Universitas Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26623/jreb.v17i2.8994

Abstract

The concept of efficiency emphasizes the ability to utilize available resources economically. Efficiency in banking is stated as an indicator of bank performance that is needed to survive in competition and changes in consumer behavior. This study investigates the efficient performance of commercial banks in Indonesia, crucial for their resilience amidst competitive pressures and evolving consumer behaviors. Utilizing a purposive sample of 85 banks from 2018 to 2022, we employ Data Envelopment Analysis, a non-parametric method, to assess efficiency. Our findings reveal suboptimal operational efficiency across Indonesian commercial banks during the study period, with an average efficiency score consistently below 1. Notably, larger banks, with capital exceeding 70 trillion, exhibit superior efficiency, averaging between 97% to 98%. Conversely, smaller banks, with capital under 6 trillion, demonstrate varied efficiency levels. Hypothesis testing underscores the significant impact of company size, profitability, and capital ratios on bank efficiency.Konsep efisiensi menggarisbawahi tentang kecakapan dalam memanfaatkan sumber daya yang tersedia secara ekonomis. Efisiensi pada perbankan dinyatakan sebagai indikator kinerja bank yang diperlukan agar dapat bertahan dalam persaingan dan perubahan perilaku konsumen. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menilai bagaimana kinerja efisiensi pada bank umum di Indonesia. Sebanyak 85 sampel bank dipilih secara purposive dan digunakan dalam penelitian selama tahun 2018 - 2022. Penaksiran nilai efisiensi pada seluruh bank umum dilakukan menggunakan pendekatan non parametrik dengan Data Envelopment Analysis. Hasil penaksiran menunjukkan bahwa selama periode pengamatan bank umum di Indonesia belum beroperasi secara efisien. Hal ini ditunjukkan dengan nilai rata-rata efisiensi seluruh bank yang bernilai lebih kecil dari 1. Hasil empiris menunjukkan efisiensi tertinggi terdapat pada kelompok bank besar yang memiliki modal di atas 70 triliun dengan rata-rata berkisar 97% sampai 98%. Sedangkan efisiensi tedapat terjadi pada kelompok bank kecil yang memiliki modal di bawah 6 triliun. Hasil pengujian hipotesis menunjukkan bahwa ukuran perusahaan, profitabilitas dan rasio permodalan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap efisiensi bank.
COMPETITIVE IN THE DIGITAL ERA: TRAINING ON THE USE OF E-COMMERCE TO INCREASE UMKM PRODUCTIVITY IN KADUGEDE VILLAGE Jahidah, Nurul Siti; Adzimatinur, Fauziyah; Lesmana, Arief Surya; Pramono, Ardian Eka; Amellia, Tiara
PENA DIMAS: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol 3, No 1 (2024): Pena Dimas: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat
Publisher : Universitas Islam Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33474/penadimas.v3i1.26047

Abstract

The digital era has brought significant changes in the business sector, especially for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Digital technology, especially E-Commerce platforms, is key in increasing productivity and market access for MSMEs. This community service aims to improve the ability of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) actors in Kadugede Village to use the E-Commerce platform, especially Shopee Seller. The implementation of the activity involved 10 MSME actors and consisted of four stages, namely socialisation, education, training and evaluation. The method used was Participatory Action Research (PAR). The evaluation was conducted through questionnaires and interviews before and after the training to measure the understanding and application of E-Commerce technology. The results showed that there was a significant increase in participants' understanding of the use of E-Commerce platforms, online store management, promotion strategies, and efficiency in business operations. The participants were able to increase sales by utilising the existing promotional features. In addition, the evaluation showed that participants were satisfied with the training activities. E-Commerce training in a structured and intensively assisted manner is proven to be able to improve the competitiveness of MSMEs.
Analisis Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Sektor Ritel yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2020-2023 Hadi Satria Ganefi; Lesmana, Arief Surya; Muttaqien, Dadan Darmawan
Jurnal Ranah Publik Indonesia Kontemporer (Rapik) Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): Desember
Publisher : Indonesian Journal Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47134/rapik.v4i2.64

Abstract

The development of the retail sector is influenced by many factors such as competition, government policies and technology that have an impact on consumer patterns in consuming goods or services. This will affect the company's business activities, especially in gaining profits. This will certainly have an impact on financial performance. Poor financial conditions allow companies to face financial difficulties and even lose investor trust. The purpose of this study was to determine the overall level of financial difficulties in retail sector companies during the 2020-2023 period using the Altman Z-Score Modified method to predict financial difficulties. This study uses a non-statistical quantitative method and 12 companies were used as samples using a purposive sampling technique. The results showed that out of 12 companies, one company experienced financial distress, one company was in the gray area zone and ten companies were in the healthy category.
Islamic CAPM based on Cluster Analysis for Portfolio Selection Lesmana, Arief Surya; Muttaqien, Dadan Darmawan; Firjatullah, Akmal Naufal; Choerunnisa, Reisma
Neraca Keuangan : Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi dan Keuangan Vol. 19 No. 1 (2024): APRIL
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Ibn Khaldun Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32832/neraca.v19i1.16665

Abstract

This research combines portfolio management and cluster analysis as an alternative diversification strategy to reduce risk. The method used is a comparative approach to compare the performance of the formed portfolio. The object of this research was taken purposively from JII stocks for January 2018 to June 2023. Portfolio selection is based on two hierarchical clustering techniques, namely Ward’s algorithm and Complete Linkage. Meanwhile, the portfolio formation uses Islamic CAPM by replacing the risk-free rate with a sukuk coupon. The results of the analysis show that cluster analysis can be an effective tool for investors to select stocks. Each clustering technique produces 4 clusters, and then from each cluster, the most representative stock is selected so that the portfolio consists of 4 stocks each. Based on the Sharpe index, the Complete Linkage clustering technique is proven to outperform in portfolio formation compared to Ward’s algorithm.
Pelatihan Optimalisasi Pemasaran Digital Produk Unggulan bagi Pelaku UMKM Perempuan di Desa Geresik Fitriani, Lili Karmela; Harjadi, Dikdik; Lesmana, Arief Surya; Ningsih, Liya; Firdaus, Galih Adam; Anastasya, Tyas Fitria
Empowerment : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 8 No. 01 (2025): Empowerment
Publisher : Program Studi Ilmu Hukum Fakultas Hukum Universitas Kuningan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25134/empowerment.v8i01.11306

Abstract

This community service program is expected to optimize digital marketing for flagship products of women-led MSMEs in Geresik Village, Ciawigebang District, Kuningan Regency. The limited understanding of the participants about digital marketing hinders them from increasing their market share and competitiveness in a wider environment. The approach employed was in the form of hands-on mentorship, gifting participants the knowledge and acumen to wield digital tools like social media, online marketplaces, and content creation techniques. The study shows that respondents’ ability to digitally market their products has increased because of the support provided, where more visibility attracts customers and can lead to sales. Some other outcomes or results of the program were collaboration among the MSME sector and the adoption of sustainability in marketing practice. The recommendations go to the sustainability of the program through: establishing a digital community of MSMEs, continuous training, and solidifying ties with government and private stakeholders. This initiative thus illustrates the potential impact of digital marketing for empowering rural MSMEs in support of economic development at the local level.
PREDIKTOR KINERJA IHSG DENGAN PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL Lesmana, Arief Surya; Wiharno, Herma; Maulana, Yasir; Supriatna, Odang; Rahmantya, Yanneri Elfa Kiswara
Equilibrium: Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan dan Ekonomi Vol. 21 No. 01 (2024): Equilibrium: Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan dan Ekonomi
Publisher : Universitas Kuningan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25134/equi.v21i01.7778

Abstract

AbstrakPasar modal merupakan salah satu sarana investasi yang dapat memberikan keuntungan dengan risiko tertentu. Untuk memperoleh keuntungan yang optimal, diperlukan informasi mengenai faktor-faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi kinerja pasar modal. Objek dalam penelitian ini adalah Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji secara empiris pengaruh inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, nilai tukar, jumlah uang beredar, harga minyak dunia, dan Indeks Dow Jones terhadap kinerja IHSG dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Penelitian ini menggunakan teknik Error Correction Model (ECM) untuk menganalisis data pada periode Januari 2017 sampai Desember 2021. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang kinerja Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, nilai tukar USD/IDR, harga minyak dunia, dan Indeks Dow Jones. Sedangkan dalam jangka pendek kinerja IHSG hanya dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh nilai tukar USD/IDR, harga minyak dunia, dan Indeks Dow Jones. Berdasarkan temuan dalam penelitian ini, penting bagi pemerintah untuk focus dalam menjaga stabilitas perekonomian nasional dan sigap dalam mengantisipasi pengaruh factor eksternal agar kinjera HISG tetap terjaga. Kata Kunci: IHSG; Makroekonomi; ECM AbstractA capital market is an investment place that can provide returns with certain risks. In order to obtain optimal returns, information on the factors that can affect the performance of the capital market is needed. The object of this research is Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) This study empirically examined the effect of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, world oil prices, and the Dow Jones Index on JCI performance in the long and short term. This study uses the Error Correction Model (ECM) technique to analyze data for the period from January 2017 to December 2021. The results of the analysis show that in the long term, the JCI performance is significantly affected by inflation, interest rates, USD/IDR exchange rates, world oil prices, and the Dow Jones Index. Meanwhile, in the short term, the JCI’s performance was only significantly affected by the USD/IDR exchange rates, world oil prices, and the Dow Jones Index. Based on the findings in this study, it is important for the government to focus on maintaining the stability of the national economy and be alert in anticipating the influence of external factors so that the HISG is maintained. Keywords: IHSG; Macroeconomics; ECM
Analisis Portofolio Saham dengan Model Black Litterman-CAPM Lesmana, Arief Surya; Maulana, Yasir
Worksheet : Jurnal Akuntansi Vol 4, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS DHARMAWANGSA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46576/wjs.v4i2.6275

Abstract

Dalam menghadapi fenomena perubahan kondisi pasar, investor perlu membentuk portofolio yang berbeda agar menghasilkan return dan risiko yang optimal. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk membentuk portofolio optimal pada kondisi pasar modal Indonesia yang berbeda. Proksi untuk indeks pasar adalah IHSG dan proksi untuk aset bebas risiko adalah Tingkat suku bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia. Sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah 20 perusahaan yang dipilih secara purposive berdasarkan  kapitalisasi pasarnya. Pembentukan portofolio optimal dilakukan melalui model Black Litterman-CAPM. Portofolio optimal terdiri dari 5 saham, yaitu PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk sebesar 43,47%, PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk sebesar 21,22%, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk sebesar 14,29%, PT Mayora Indah Tbk sebesar 12,59%, dan PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk sebesar 8,43% dengan return portofolio sebesar 8,05% dan risiko 2,65%. Sedangkan untuk menghadapi kondisi bearish, portofolio optimal terdiri dari 6 saham, yaitu PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk sebesar 43,13%, PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk sebesar 21,25%, PT. United Tractors Tbk sebesar 16,68%, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk sebesar 13,59%, PT Mayora Indah Tbk sebesar 4,17%, dan PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk sebesar 1,18% dengan return portofolio sebesar 8,01% dan risiko 5,20%
Co-Authors Adi Muhamad Muhsidi Adzimatinur, Fauziyah Amellia, Tiara Anastasya, Tyas Fitria Choerunnisa, Reisma Faisal Raihimi Faishal Rahimi Firdaus, Galih Adam Firjatullah, Akmal Naufal Firmansyah, Muhamad Andhika Ganefi, Hadi Satria Hadi Satria Ganefi Hadi Satria Ganefi Harjadi, Dikdik Herma Wiharno Jahidah, Nurul Siti Lesmana, Ari Lili Karmela Fitriani Munir Nur Komarudin Muttaqien, Dadan Darmawan Ningsih, Liya Pramono, Ardian Eka Rahmantya, Yanneri Elfa Kiswara Supriatna, Odang Syafrudin, Oding Yasir Maulana