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All Journal Jurnal Kebijakan Pembangunan Daerah (JKPD) Jurnal Statistika Terapan (JSTAR)
Firman Emmanuel Declarantius Parulian
Politeknik Statistika STIS
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Industrialisasi dan Pengentasan Kemiskinan di Nusa Tenggara Timur: Pendekatan Analisis Data Panel Ni Putu Lidya Pramesty; Firman Emmanuel Declarantius Parulian
Jurnal Statistika Terapan (ISSN 2807-6214) Vol 5 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Statistika Terapan
Publisher : Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi NTT

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64930/jstar.v5i1.107

Abstract

NTT is still facing a high level of poverty with slow progress in its reduction. One of the root causes of poverty in NTT is the low income of the population due to low labor productivity. In this regard, industrialization is considered a potential solution to poverty alleviation. However, previous studies on the impact of industrialization on poverty have shown varied results. Therefore, this study aims to provide an overview of industrialization in NTT and analyze its impact on poverty. This research uses panel data from 22 districts/cities between 2017 and 2023, sourced from Badan Pusat Statistik. The data is analyzed using descriptive methods and panel data regression. The results show that NTT has undergone an industrialization process, but at a low development rate. In fact, an increase in the contribution of the manufacturing sector to the economy has proven to be effective in reducing poverty in NTT's districts by enhancing labor productivity. However, merely increasing labor absorption in the manufacturing sector has not been sufficient to reduce poverty, particularly for low-skilled workers. This is because the manufacturing sector in NTT is still dominated by micro and small industries. Therefore, it is recommended that the government of NTT prioritize policies that focus on improving the quality of industries, especially micro and small industries.
VOLATILITAS HARGA KOMODITAS PANGAN DAN IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN STABILISASI PANGAN DI PROVINSI BANTEN Firman Emmanuel Declarantius Parulian; Marchadha Santi Wilda
Jurnal Kebijakan Pembangunan Daerah Vol 10 No 1 (2026): Juni 2026
Publisher : Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah Provinsi Banten

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56945/jkpd.v10i1.406

Abstract

National food security requires controlled price stability to ensure public purchasing power. However, Banten Province continues to face serious challenges, evidenced by a decline in the Food Consumption Pattern (PPH) score and the Food Security Index (IKP) due to extreme commodity price volatility. This study aims to analyze the volatility characteristics of eight primary food commodities: shallots, garlic, red chili, bird's eye chili, chicken meat, beef, chicken eggs, and granulated sugar in Banten Province from July 2017 to December 2025. Employing a quantitative approach using the ARIMA-EGARCH model, this research specifically identifies the presence of asymmetric (leverage) effects in price dynamics. The results indicate that all eight commodities exhibit ARCH effects, with the EGARCH model identified as the most suitable fit. Beef shows the highest leverage value (0.624), demonstrating the greatest responsiveness to price shocks compared to other commodities. In contrast, chicken eggs and granulated sugar exhibit lower volatility levels. Uniquely, shallots are more susceptible to "bad news" (price decreases), whereas the other seven commodities are more volatile during price increases. Policy recommendations include strengthening the Early Warning System (EWS) for commodities with extreme volatility and investing in Controlled-Atmosphere Storage (CAS) technology to address the perishable nature of these commodities. Furthermore, reinforcing distribution regulations by the Regional Inflation Control Team (TPID) is essential to mitigate market panic in Banten Province. Keywords: Food Commodity Prices, Volatility, Leverage, Banten, EGARCH
Co-Authors Marchadha Santi Wilda Ni Putu Lidya Pramesty