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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia Journal of Business and Political Economy: Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy Review
Kartawinata, Matthew
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Applied Big Data Driven Study on Shock Absorption and Tolerance Bands of Staple Food Commodities Price Volatility in East Java Herawan, Jonathan; Aviliani, Avi; Kartawinata, Matthew
Journal of Business and Political Economy : Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Business and Political Economy: Biannual Review of The Indonesian Ec
Publisher : INDEF - Institute for Development of Economics and Finance

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46851/248

Abstract

This study investigates the day-to-day volatility dynamics of five staple food commodities in East Java which are Red Bird’s Eye Chili Pepper, Medium Rice, Bendera Powdered Milk, Free-Range Chicken Meat, and Commercial Chicken Eggs. By utilizing daily price data from January 1, 2021, to February 2, 2025, collected via big-data scraping of a government price monitoring website. A GARCH model with Student-t innovations is fitted to each return series, from which one-day 95% Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds are derived to establish an evidence-based "tolerance band" for policy intervention. The results show that Red Bird’s Eye Chili Pepper has the widest band, with an allowable daily drop of 2.5% and a rise of 10.14%, whereas Bendera Powdered Milk exhibits the narrowest range. All five series display extreme volatility persistence coefficients are near or above 1, but a critical finding is that the markets for Medium Rice and Free-Range Chicken Meat are not shock absorbent, with persistence values exceeding 1. This indicates that any market disruption has a permanent effect on their future volatility, pointing to deep structural inefficiencies. These empirically derived VaR-based guardrails provide a quantitative framework for timely market stabilization, while the persistence analysis highlights the need for long-term structural reforms, particularly for the rice and chicken sectors. Keywords: food price volatility; GARCH;  value-at-risk; big data. JEL: C54, Q11, Q1
When lights tell stories: The untold economic pattern of Java island Aviliani, Avi; Kartawinata, Matthew; Herawan, Jonathan Ersten; Parningotan, Firman; Komala, Angelina
Jurnal Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia Vol 15 No 1 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52813/jei.v15i1.786

Abstract

Purpose — This study evaluates the role of Nighttime Lights (NTL) as a complementary indicator of regional economic and socio-economic development across Java Island. Method — Using VIIRS NTL data for 2016–2023, the study compares radiance patterns with GRDP per capita, Human Development Index (HDI), population density, and road infrastructure across six provinces. The analysis combines spatial visualization, growth comparison, and correlation analysis. Findings — Results show that NTL effectively captures the spatial concentration and dynamics of economic activity, but its relationship with development indicators varies across regions. Strong alignment appears in highly urbanized provinces such as DKI Jakarta, while weaker or divergent patterns are observed in regions with service-based or dispersed economies.Implications — NTL can support policy analysis by revealing spatial disparities and real-time economic dynamics, but it should be used cautiously as a complementary rather than standalone indicator. Originality — This study provides a subnational, multidimensional assessment of NTL in Java, highlighting its context-dependent reliability as a proxy for development.
Price transmission in Indonesia’s CPO chain: an ARDL-UECM assessment Kartawinata, Matthew; Herawan, Jonathan Ersten; Komala, Angelina; Susilo, Yuvensius Sri; Tendenan, Vica; Brata, Aloysius Gunadi
Jurnal Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia Vol 15 No 1 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52813/jei.v15i1.788

Abstract

This study analyzes price transmission along Indonesia’s cooking-oil value chain using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models expressed in Unrestricted Error-Correction (UECM) form, which separates short-run dynamics from long-run equilibrium relationships. Monthly data from January 2016 to May 2023 are employed, covering stable conditions as well as the 2022 cooking-oil crisis. The dataset comprises international crude palm oil (CPO) benchmark prices (deflated and JISDOR FX rate-adjusted), domestic wholesale bulk prices, and retail bulk prices, alongside policy dummies for the export-ban/DMO window and the post-2022 MGKR regime. Results reveal a sharp asymmetry between upstream and downstream stages. In the upstream link, CPO price shocks are transmitted quickly but only partially: the long-run pass-through is β = 0.420, with an immediate impact of 0.131 and a very high adjustment speed (λ = –0.639), implying a half-life of only 0.68 months. By contrast, the downstream link is characterized by amplification and sluggish adjustment. Retail prices exhibit an exaggerated long-run pass-through (β = 2.34), weak contemporaneous transmission (0.104), and slow convergence (λ = –0.143), with a half-life of 4.49 months and overshooting in lagged responses. These findings underscore the resilience of wholesale markets and the vulnerability of retail segments.
Co-Authors Aloysius Gunadi Brata Aviliani, Avi Herawan, Jonathan Herawan, Jonathan Ersten Komala, Angelina Parningotan, Firman Tendenan, Vica Y. Sri Susilo