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All Journal Ekopedia: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan (JESP)
Ghozali Maski
Brawijaya University
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The Mundell-Fleming Trilemma Combination on Middle-Income Countries Rinny Apriliany Zakaria; Ghozali Maski; Putu Mahardika Adi Saputra; Ahmed Mohamed Annegrat
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 15, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17977/um002v15i12023p050

Abstract

The Mundell-Fleming trilemma hypothesis stated that a country could not simultaneously achieve exchange rate stability, financial integration, and monetary independence. The fixed exchange rate policy, free capital mobility, and monetary independence are trade-offs and impossible to run simultaneously. This research aims to identify the combination of the Mundell-Fleming trilemma formed in middle-income countries. Using the panel ARDL model, we found that the Mundell-Fleming trilemma tends to converge in the short run. While on the long run, middle-income countries tend to choose monetary independence and financial integration, resulting in a less stable exchange rate, as mentioned in the hypothesis
Systemic Risk Analysis Using Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) Model: Study of Conventional Banks in Indonesia Rihana Sofie Nabella; Ghozali Maski; Setyo Tri Wahyudi
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 12, No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17977/um002v12i12020p057

Abstract

This study aims to measure systemic risk in conventional commercial banks in Indonesia with the Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) model developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009). The financial crises of 1998 and 2008 have become valuable lessons for Indonesian banks to always maintain financial system stability because the impact caused by systemic risks is very large. Systemic risk is the possibility of instability due to contagion in some or all of the financial system. This study uses a sample of 6 conventional commercial banks in Indonesia from January 2012 to December 2018. The results obtained from this study is the systemic risk is not related to the size of banks. Each bank has a negative externality so that it can cause a bank rush and systemic impact.
The Influence of Third-Party Funds, Non- Performing Loan, Inflation, and Loan Interestrate on The Distribution of Msme Business Loan by Commercial Banks in West Kalimantan in The 2015-2025 Period Vania Ashlah Khairunnisaa; Ghozali Maski
Ekopedia: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Vol. 2 No. 3 (2026): JULI-SEPTEMBER
Publisher : Indo Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63822/n65cdh53

Abstract

MSME credit distribution is an important instrument in supporting economic growth in West Kalimantan. This study analyzes the relationship between Third-Party Funds (TPF), MSME Non-Performing Loans (MSME NPL), inflation, and lending interest rates and MSME credit distribution by commercial banks in West Kalimantan during 2015–2025. The study uses quarterly secondary data and applies the Engle-Granger Error Correction Model (ECM) to distinguish short-run dynamics from the long-run relationship. The results show that TPF, MSME NPL, inflation, and lending interest rates are not statistically signifi-cant in the short run. The long-run estimation indicates a positive and statistically signifi-cant relationship between TPF and MSME credit distribution, while MSME NPL, inflation, and lending interest rates are not statistically significant. The Error Correction Term (ECT) is negative and statistically significant at the 10 percent level, indicating an adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium. These findings suggest that MSME credit distribu-tion in West Kalimantan is more closely associated with the availability of bank funding in the long run than with short-run changes in credit risk, inflation, or lending interest rates.
The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on the INFOBANK15 Index for the 2022–2025 Period Marcell Lie; Ghozali Maski
Ekopedia: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Vol. 2 No. 3 (2026): JULI-SEPTEMBER
Publisher : Indo Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63822/h54as768

Abstract

This study examines the effect of macroeconomic variables on the INFOBANK15 Index in Indonesia during 2022 to 2025. The study is motivated by the different movement of the INFOBANK15 Index compared with the broader stock market during the post pandemic recovery and monetary policy normalization period. Previous studies on the effects of BIRate, inflation, and exchange rate on the INFOBANK15 Index have produced mixed findings and mostly focused on earlier periods. This study aims to analyze the partial and simultaneous effects of BI Rate, inflation, and the USD/IDR exchange rate on the IN-FOBANK15 Index. The study uses an explanatory quantitative approach with quarterly secondary data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Statistics Indonesia, and Bank Indonesia. The analytical model is multiple linear regression, while the model pa-rameters are estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. All variables are transformed into natural logarithms to reduce scale differences across variables, stabilize data variation, and allow the coefficients to be interpreted as elasticity. The findings are expected to provide empirical evidence on the sensitivity of banking stock performance to macroeconomic changes and practical insights for investors, banking management, and monetary authorities.
Co-Authors Ahmed Mohamed Annegrat Marcell Lie Putu Mahardika Adi Saputra Rihana Sofie Nabella Rinny Apriliany Zakaria Setyo Tri Wahyudi Vania Ashlah Khairunnisaa